šMorning Brief ā May 13
1ļøā£Hormuz is becoming a permissions market.
A Chinese VLCC, Yuan Hua Hu, is attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz with 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude after being stuck in the Gulf since early March. Reuters says it would be the third Chinese oil tanker to pass Hormuz since the U. S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
Iran is selling selective passage through bilateral arrangements with Iraq, Pakistan, Qatar, and now indirectly China.
Ships move when Tehran permits the corridor.
2ļøā£Oil eased, but the war premium stayed.
Brent fell $1.47, or 1.4%, to $106.30 at 06:30 GMT, while WTI fell $1.41, or 1.4%, to $100.77. Both benchmarks remain near or above $100 after the February escalation and the effective closure of Hormuz.
The IEA now says global oil supply will undershoot demand in 2026 by 1.78 million barrels per day, reversing last monthās projected 410,000 bpd surplus. It estimates more than 1 billion barrels already lost and more than 14 million bpd shut in across Gulf producers.
3ļøā£ Prediction markets separate deal headlines from physical traffic.
Polymarket prices a U. S.āIran permanent peace deal by May 13 at <1%, by May 15 at 1%, by May 31 at 17%, by June 30 at 35%, and by December 31 at 63%, with about $110 million traded on the market.
Polymarketās Hormuz page prices normal traffic by July 31 at 46% and by December 31 at 78%.
The market is saying: a political deal this year is plausible; normal shipping soon is not.
4ļøā£Asian equities are using AI as a shock absorber.
MSCI Asia ex-Japan rose 0.3% after an early 1% drop. Japanās Nikkei gained 0.8%, and S&P 500 e-mini futures added 0.2%. Koreaās Kospi fell as much as 3.2% on Samsung strike fears, then rebounded 2.6% to a record close.
Samsung shares dropped as much as 6.1% after failed wage talks, then rose 1.8% after government intervention signals.
The regional trade is clear: energy shock hurts importers, but AI exports keep buying time for Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia.
5ļøā£Europe bought the oil dip. Gulf markets bought the China meeting.
The STOXX 600 rose 0.7% to 611.06, after losing more than 1% on Tuesday. Spainās IBEX 35 added 0.6%, and Germanyās DAX rose 0.7%.
Saudi Arabiaās TASI gained 0.2%, Abu Dhabi added 0.3%, and Qatar edged up 0.1%. Dubai fell 0.7%, with Emaar down 1%.
Investors are not buying peace. They are buying the possibility that Trump and Xi can stabilize the corridor without Iran surrendering.
6ļøā£Trump says he does not need Xi, but the map says otherwise.
Trump said before his China trip that the U. S. does not need Chinese help with Iran and will āwin it one way or the other, peacefully or otherwise.ā
Reuters says China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite U. S. sanctions, while U. S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to join efforts to open Hormuz to international shipping.
7ļøā£Israeli and U. S. intelligence narratives diverge on Iranās missile capacity.
Israel Hayom, citing a New York Times report on new U. S. intelligence assessments, says Iran still has operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along Hormuz. The same report says this contradicts Trump administration claims that Iranās military has been ācrushed.ā
That matters for the naval track. If Iran retains most launch sites, Project Freedom is not a policing mission; it is a live missile-risk operation.
Bottom line: May 13 morning shows how world order erodes without a formal announcement. Oil stays above $100, the IEA now sees deficit instead of surplus, Polymarket discounts near-term peace, China tests selective passage through Hormuz, and Asian absorbs the macro shock. The system is not breaking theatrically; it is being repriced quietly ā through tankers, currencies, insurance, energy flows, and the shrinking ability of Washington to make a chokepoint āopenā by saying so.
#BabylonBurning #Hormuz #Iran #Markets
