Demographics Now and Then

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Updated: May 29, 2026 at 5:02 PM

Demographics Now and Then

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

@dem0graphics offers specialized information about channel and related for subscribers interested in World News

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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While the Federation of Malaya may have ended decades ago Singapore & Malaysia are in many ways still demographically the same country with Chinese & Indians in both falling below lowest low TFR and Malays at more sustainable (but quickly dropping & below replacement) levels:

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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The Ukrainian “births staircase” highlighting the demographic collapse there is truly horrific to behold.  While births were already on a very bad trajectory before the war the births & fertility collapse from 2022 has made things existential.  Unless at least half of the Ukrainian female core cohort (age 18-40) diaspora returns postwar its is hard to picture a national durvival scenario even with a TFR rebound.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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The principal fertile female population of China is headed for a massive baked in drop between now and 2050.  This population will plummet by 42% from ~190 million to ~110 million (with a drop of almost half for the cohort already born that will be ages 24-40 in 2050, from 148M to 78M).  Thus even if the China pulls off a fertility rebound miracle by 2050 to 1.8 TFR births then would still only be 5,500,000 against 7.92M today.

South Korea and Ukraine on track to make out even worse.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

The fertility rate of Non Hispanic White Americans is higher than that of Mexico, the UK, Sri Lanka, Australia, Tunisia, Colombia, & Brazil to name a few. In 2025 having the largest U. S. race (191 million in size) with slightly increasing fertility rates above 1.5 is pretty significant.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2042261192433959239

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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The US is one of the only countries in the developed world where Gen Alpha will be larger than Gen X. Gen X cohort years saw an average of 3,431,913 births annually. So far the U. S. Gen Alpha cohort years has seen an average of 3,790,268 annual births. Politically significant.

While European Boomers & Xers will be able to impose their political will to a degree on Millennial, Zoomer, & Alpha for many more years, in the U. S. younger generations will have the numbers to push back on everything from taxes to immigration to foreign policy as soon as 2030.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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Due to 13 consecutive years of net outmigration & higher average annual deaths Alaska is marching towards natural decline despite having the Nation’s 3rd highest fertility rate at 1.9.

https://alaskabeacon.com/briefs/alaska-population-loss-looms-with-fewer-births-and-more-deaths-in-an-aging-population/

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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Outdated but interesting demographic information from Iraq. In 2018 Shia Arab Iraqis has a TFR of ⬆️4.0, Kurds 3.0, & Sunni Arab Iraqis 2.9. Sunni Arab Iraqi TFR cratered during & after war to destroy ISIS in Mosul & other predominately Sunni Arab areas.

Would estimate today that if Iraqi national TFR ~3.0 then Shia Arab has fallen to no more than 3.25, Sunni Arab ~2.5, & Kurdish 2.75 (very high in rural areas & ~2.3 in more urban). Kurds also emigrate to Europe proportionally more than any other major Iraqi group.

2024 census did find Shia Arabs recorded largest average household sizes while Kurdish areas (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok) has a significantly lower percentage of children under 5 compared to the national average indicating lower fertility & faster aging. Ditto Sunni Arab areas.

https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-inside-iraq-s-population-guessing-game

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

Thailand with its 68 million people is one of the largest countries in the world to fall below 0.85 TFR (3X Taiwan, 15M larger than South Korea). Its economy,pension scheme,& workforce are in for a wild ride.

Birth numbers for March for Thailand were just released. Despite an awful January showing a fall of almost 15% better birth figures in both February & March improved things a bit & births now down 10.8% in the first quarter of the year. TFR still on track to be sub 0.80 sadly.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

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Of all Central Asian countries here Turkmenistan is in worst shape. Mass emigration fuels population decline, horrifically bad governance also pushes. Tajikistan also has very high emigration but a TFR to partially make up for it. KZ has huge ethnic difference in fertility.

Uzbekistan falling fast but from 3.21 so it will likely not converge with KZ until 2028-2030. UZ also has a very decent population size & should just get to 50 million before plateauing. Kyrgyzstan may make it to 10 million before doing the same.

Back to Kazakhstan & the internal fertility differential. The fertility rate of ~3.0 for ethnic Kazakhs (~70% of the population) is roughly 3 times higher than the ~1.0 for ethnic Russians (15% of the population). This is based off of 2025 information from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 23, 2026, 09:21 PM

Myanmar has lost 2.3 million emigrants to Thailand since 2021 coup ignited a Civil War (2M+additional Burmese emigrated pre 2021). Burma risks losing these assimilatable Buddhists to Thailand forever. However, Thai xenophobia may just push many back post war.

Myanmar also likely has below replacement fertility. So emigration ages the developing country faster.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/03/26/millions-of-burmese-struggle-to-find-safety-in-thailand

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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Congressional Budget Office predicts natural decline is right around the corner for the United States. ~2030 deaths expected to outpace births for the first time in American history. The population is only expected to ⬆️ to ~364M by 2056 from 343M today.

This is a far cry from the estimates of almost 400 million Americans ~2050 we say just a decade ago. There are many perspectives on whether or not this is a bad thing. From my point of view the greatest concern is falling births (especially amongst the Middle Class).

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61994

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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American monthly casualties in the First World War were 35,626. Highest monthly casualties for the U. S. Armed Forces in its history. U. S. losses paled in comparison to those of the UK, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, France, & Italy. WWI wreaked enormous demographic damage.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

As of 2026, total number of Italians living abroad surpassed 7.3 million (according to AIRE), now outnumbering foreign residents within Italy by nearly two million. BUT this is all Italian citizens abroad including those in ARG & BZ who gained citizenship.

These millions of Italian citizen Argentines & Brazilians should offer a potential demographic lifeline to Italy but this is unlikely as they are often among the better off & not doing horribly at home, & as Italian citizens they have the option to immigrate anywhere in the EU.

They may even move to Norway or Switzerland on their Italian passport. Sadly for Italy if 150,000+ Italian citizens emigrate annually it is doubtful they can convince a significant chunk of the citizens diaspora to return.

https://italianismo.com.br/en/italianos-no-exterior-ja-somam-mais-de-73-milhoes-aponta-governo/

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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Japanese fertility rate has been higher than South Korea’s continuously since early 2000s, & the gap had widened dramatically in recent years (with a 0.48-0.49 TFR difference from 2020-2023). The gap narrowed significantly in 2024 & 2025 & TFRs may converge at ~1.05 before 2030.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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Many lessons to draw from the below fertility map of Nigeria. Fertility can & will fall fast in smartphone penetrated, changing values societies. Ghana, Kenya,South Nigeria etc will likely be below local replacement before 2040. Muslim Sub Saharan nations maybe not until 2050.

Does not take much economic development to reach a high level of mobile internet/smart phone penetration. But once a society gets to that point & former values are displaced, many see large families as holding them back so fertility plummets in the near total majority of cases.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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Colombia has TFR close to 1.2 these days. Around the same level as Chile, Argentina, & Uruguay despite having far lower Per Capita GDP (in both PPP and nominal terms) & being far more ethnically diverse. The collapse is thus not tied directly to a specific race or income level.

Though it is worth noting that there is almost certainly a certain income minimum where past which point one is able to have a smartphone & engage in more non essential consumption & changing of economic & cultural priorities.

That is what we see in places as diverse as Nepal, Swaziland, Bhutan, Botswana, Sri Lanka, & Cuba.

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

Italians still emigrating in huge numbers. In 2023 158,000 people emigrated from Italy, including ~114,000 Italian citizens.  In 2024 this rose to 191,000, a 20.5% increase year over year. Of these, 156,000 were Italian citizens (36% emigration increase).

The annual Italian citizen emigration loss is larger than the greater metropolitan population of Salerno. On top of this Italy sees 37,000+ natural decline every year.

https://www.istat.it/en/press-release/demographic-indicators-year-2024/

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

If this South Korean demographic rebound maintained then if anything UN projections were not optimistic enough lol. Even in the below projection RoK was not forecast to hit 0.90 until the 2030s & could conceivably come close this year even if coming months are not as positive.

This is happening even as Seoul property is more unaffordable than ever. My projection for South Korea’s TFR floor was 0.75 but it ended up being 0.72. Even this lower level is higher than floor of other places in East Asia like Taiwan (which may be sub 0.7 in 2026) & Hong Kong.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2036714422043873703

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Demographics Now and Then

Apr 14, 2026, 11:30 PM

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Unlike Spain or Japan or Canada, or just about any other country, China is simply far too big to mitigate this with some mix of AI and labor policy changes. China certainly won’t collapse anytime soon but they will try radical solutions the rest of the world hasn’t considered.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

IMHO Uganda likely 3.75 TFR or lower by 2030. 3.0 by 2035 & close to local replacement by 2040. Smart phone in every hand & modest standard of living increases could supercharge falling fertility. Unless food crisis stemming from the possible fertilizer crisis crushes incomes.

But Uganda may also be in a phase where dearer food prices also push people to have less children.

https://x.com/comtewasright/status/2034608516955050250

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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Canada is seeing its population growth decline rapidly and house prices finally come down from their insane heights. However, the number of permanent migrants per quarter for a country with a population slightly larger than California is insane. Almost 100,000 permanent migrants in Q4 2025. Canada has a population of ~41 million.

Natural increase of the Canadian population now nonexistent as TFR stays below lowest low of 1.3.

Graphic from https://t.me/charliessmirkley.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

China won’t become a chaotic war monger seeking expansion or conflict as some claim. China has no gigantic youth masses clamoring for foreign glory (just a few wolf warriors). They want to position themselves as the anti-chaos choice, a stable option. Winning without fighting.

The China of today is not the kind of country that launches a SMO into its neighbor or suddenly attacks a country it deemed a long term threat to an ally. This is not a pro China sentiment. Just looking at this political, cultural, & demographic reality.

China has many weaknesses. Geography, lack of real allies, & demographics (of course) amongst them. America has many strengths, geography, natural resource abundance, alliances. But serious serious mistakes have been made & this will have very real and long term consequences.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2032747988993368308

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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Current demographic situation in Latam well worth review. Let’s start with the largest. Brazil has recently somewhat settled ~1.50 with much of recent decline due to plunging TFR amongst the non White population. Mexico continues to see major decline with 2025 TFR below 1.4.

Colombia & Argentina are both likely below lowest low (TFR of 1.3). Peru is somewhere around 1.6 & Chile is ~1.1 while even Venezuela is almost certainly below replacement level fertility. The entire region is deep into its demographic decline.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

This article shows many major population projections are far off.  U. S. Census Bureau's latest from late 2025 still show Africa at 4 billion+ people by 2100 even though it’s more likely to be below 2.75 billion w/Sub Saharan Africa as low as 2.0-2.25B.

You only reach these 4B plus projections if you almost completely ignore steadily falling fertility rates in Africa or assume they will reverse. Based on what we see all over the continent from Kenya to Botswana to Ghana, this is clearly not the case. TFR is broadly falling.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/world-population-china-africa-asia

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

I’m guessing the disastrously low Non-EU born fertility rates of ~1.0 & below are overwhelmingly Ukrainians. Even tiny Malta saw an influx of at least 2,000 Ukrainian refugees. These ultra low TFRs for non EU are in Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, & Hungary so checks out.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2032578233305075994

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

🇹🇼 👶 Taiwanese births now down more than 23% this year (January & February) compared to the same time in 2025! Full demographic capitulation which (if constant for the rest of the year) would put the fertility rate below 0.60!

Such extreme demographic decline means Taiwan will have less than 100,000 births this year, age even faster, & from a labor standpoint will have very very few future workers. While the absolute worst case scenario is a TFR of 0.00 this is (in the real world) dangerously close.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/default.aspx

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

Many countries that have had a recent demographic renaissance have started this year very rough. Mongolian births ⬇️ ~9% & if this trend continues would put them below 2.2 TFR for the 1st time since 2006. Uzbekistan continuing large decline⬇️14%. TFR may be lowest since 2020.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

🇨🇦 👶 For 2024, 79 metro areas of Canada (out of 151) are at or below lowest low fertility rate (1.3). Largest Toronto (TFR 1.1), second largest Montréal (1.3), third Vancouver (0.90),fourth Calgary (1.3),& fifth Edmonton (1.3). Of all metro areas only 3 of 151 are above replacement.

https://x.com/charliesmirkley/status/2030487256105198021

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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It’s not always true that populations becoming more religious leads to meaningful (or any) increases in fertility. The Economist pointed out, Indonesia went from 5% of women wearing the hijab in late 1990s to ~75% today. Yet TFR went from ~2.75 then to below replacement today.

In addition, Malaysia (which the article also explained has become more religious on both the state and the individual level) has seen its ethnic Malay (the principal Muslim ethnicity in the country) fertility rate fall from 2.74 in 2012 to 1.91 (far below replacement) in 2024.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 28, 2026, 09:09 PM

Egypt sees a surprisingly modest decline in 2025. But I think there is likely a major secular vs religious women divide with secular women heeding Sisi’s demand to have South Korean level TFR while religious women still have more than 2. Need more data to be sure though.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028437837381595282

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