Demographics Now and Then

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Updated: April 8, 2026 at 3:51 AM

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Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

IMHO Uganda likely 3.75 TFR or lower by 2030. 3.0 by 2035 & close to local replacement by 2040. Smart phone in every hand & modest standard of living increases could supercharge falling fertility. Unless food crisis stemming from the possible fertilizer crisis crushes incomes.

But Uganda may also be in a phase where dearer food prices also push people to have less children.

https://x.com/comtewasright/status/2034608516955050250

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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Canada is seeing its population growth decline rapidly and house prices finally come down from their insane heights. However, the number of permanent migrants per quarter for a country with a population slightly larger than California is insane. Almost 100,000 permanent migrants in Q4 2025. Canada has a population of ~41 million.

Natural increase of the Canadian population now nonexistent as TFR stays below lowest low of 1.3.

Graphic from https://t.me/charliessmirkley.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

China won’t become a chaotic war monger seeking expansion or conflict as some claim. China has no gigantic youth masses clamoring for foreign glory (just a few wolf warriors). They want to position themselves as the anti-chaos choice, a stable option. Winning without fighting.

The China of today is not the kind of country that launches a SMO into its neighbor or suddenly attacks a country it deemed a long term threat to an ally. This is not a pro China sentiment. Just looking at this political, cultural, & demographic reality.

China has many weaknesses. Geography, lack of real allies, & demographics (of course) amongst them. America has many strengths, geography, natural resource abundance, alliances. But serious serious mistakes have been made & this will have very real and long term consequences.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2032747988993368308

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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Current demographic situation in Latam well worth review. Let’s start with the largest. Brazil has recently somewhat settled ~1.50 with much of recent decline due to plunging TFR amongst the non White population. Mexico continues to see major decline with 2025 TFR below 1.4.

Colombia & Argentina are both likely below lowest low (TFR of 1.3). Peru is somewhere around 1.6 & Chile is ~1.1 while even Venezuela is almost certainly below replacement level fertility. The entire region is deep into its demographic decline.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

This article shows many major population projections are far off.  U. S. Census Bureau's latest from late 2025 still show Africa at 4 billion+ people by 2100 even though it’s more likely to be below 2.75 billion w/Sub Saharan Africa as low as 2.0-2.25B.

You only reach these 4B plus projections if you almost completely ignore steadily falling fertility rates in Africa or assume they will reverse. Based on what we see all over the continent from Kenya to Botswana to Ghana, this is clearly not the case. TFR is broadly falling.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/world-population-china-africa-asia

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

I’m guessing the disastrously low Non-EU born fertility rates of ~1.0 & below are overwhelmingly Ukrainians. Even tiny Malta saw an influx of at least 2,000 Ukrainian refugees. These ultra low TFRs for non EU are in Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, & Hungary so checks out.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2032578233305075994

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

🇹🇼 👶 Taiwanese births now down more than 23% this year (January & February) compared to the same time in 2025! Full demographic capitulation which (if constant for the rest of the year) would put the fertility rate below 0.60!

Such extreme demographic decline means Taiwan will have less than 100,000 births this year, age even faster, & from a labor standpoint will have very very few future workers. While the absolute worst case scenario is a TFR of 0.00 this is (in the real world) dangerously close.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/default.aspx

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

Many countries that have had a recent demographic renaissance have started this year very rough. Mongolian births ⬇️ ~9% & if this trend continues would put them below 2.2 TFR for the 1st time since 2006. Uzbekistan continuing large decline⬇️14%. TFR may be lowest since 2020.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

🇨🇦 👶 For 2024, 79 metro areas of Canada (out of 151) are at or below lowest low fertility rate (1.3). Largest Toronto (TFR 1.1), second largest Montréal (1.3), third Vancouver (0.90),fourth Calgary (1.3),& fifth Edmonton (1.3). Of all metro areas only 3 of 151 are above replacement.

https://x.com/charliesmirkley/status/2030487256105198021

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 29, 2026, 01:36 PM

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It’s not always true that populations becoming more religious leads to meaningful (or any) increases in fertility. The Economist pointed out, Indonesia went from 5% of women wearing the hijab in late 1990s to ~75% today. Yet TFR went from ~2.75 then to below replacement today.

In addition, Malaysia (which the article also explained has become more religious on both the state and the individual level) has seen its ethnic Malay (the principal Muslim ethnicity in the country) fertility rate fall from 2.74 in 2012 to 1.91 (far below replacement) in 2024.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 28, 2026, 09:09 PM

Egypt sees a surprisingly modest decline in 2025. But I think there is likely a major secular vs religious women divide with secular women heeding Sisi’s demand to have South Korean level TFR while religious women still have more than 2. Need more data to be sure though.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028437837381595282

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 26, 2026, 09:26 PM

Know I’ve said this a lot but every new month of data seems to make it more & more certain. Black American TFR will continue to plummet until at least 1.2-1.3 level. Non Hispanic White American TFR seems destined to hover around ~1.5 with a much more stable & higher floor.

https://x.com/accuratecaption/status/2027395645959508385

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 24, 2026, 09:14 PM

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South Korean fertility rate roughly tracking (& even exceeding) this recovery in 2024, 2025, & with preliminaries in 2026 btw…

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 24, 2026, 09:14 PM

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Ethnic Greek fertility rate in Hellas & ethnic Turk fertility rate in Türkiye may be below 1.2 this year. Very very steep drops in Türkiye since 2016 while Greece has been below 1.5 since 1987 & below 1.3 since 2023.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 24, 2026, 09:14 PM

Uzbekistan falling from very healthy fertility back in the direction of replacement rapidly. Fell to 3.21 in 2025 from 3.45 in 2023 and 3.35 in 2024. Will likely fall to around 3.0 this year. Likely to be around replacement by 2030.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028172156958306743

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 24, 2026, 09:14 PM

In reference to Ukrainian demographics catastrophic is an understatement. After a terrible 2025 births fall another 16% in January and February of 2026. TFR well⬇️1.0. Unless millions of Ukrainians return, Ukraine will demographically dissolve. One two punch of collapsing births & mass flight of young women due to war is lethal. Sadly millions assimilated are abroad unlikely to return.

The Ukrainian comeback cohort born 2008-2013 has a massive component that has now grown up abroad. The eldest were 14 when they left Ukraine and 18 now the youngest were 8-9 and are now 12-13. Those are core development years.

https://x.com/_kinez_/status/2028218465509605484

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 21, 2026, 10:52 AM

The reason we have a global fertility crisis is because culture has changed
in an inhuman way.  Humans are created for belonging, purpose, family,
community,shared struggle,& interdependence not consumerism,
career-firstism, digital substitutes for relationships, & individualism.

Cash handouts do not fix this, tax breaks don’t fix this, & disingenuous
culture wars certainly don’t fix it. The “culture” created over the past
several decades is hurting society.  It has pushed isolation, made irl social
interaction harder, & rewarded horrible social behavior.

Virtually every member of the political, business, & tech elite is fighting
to preserve this negative “culture” so don’t look to politicians, tech billionaires, or social media personalities to turn things around.  Do it in your own life.

Put away the phone more & more each day (remember that social media is not real life).  Don’t get caught up in the noise or the scroll as it is custom designed to make you feel empty & craving it more each day.  Keep the strongest bonds with your family & friends.

Young Millennials, Zoomers & Gen Alphas are the future.  If they can’t break free of the hellish culture that has been foisted upon them our national future is cooked.  It will be a long trek to fix things , but it’s on a path that we humans were meant to walk.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 21, 2026, 10:52 AM

Gen Alpha in Laos, Honduras, and Papua New Guinea will be far larger than that of Taiwan.  That of Nepal, Guatemala, & South Sudan, will be far larger than that of South Korea. While TFR is falling almost everywhere how fast & far will determine the destiny of nations.

Currently Laos, Honduras, & PNG have less than half the population of Taiwan. Guatemala has around a third of the population of the RoK & South Sudan around a fourth.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 19, 2026, 11:18 AM

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Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) is a real‑time experiment in demographic disintegration. Home to abandoned apartments, shuttered schools, collapsing local tax bases, hospitals consolidating/closing, & entire towns with just elderly, & losing 10% of population a decade.

The region lost ~1,000,000 people in 2024 alone with Heilongjiang losing 428,000, Liaoning 270,000, & Jilin 221,000.

https://www.visiontimes.com/2025/11/26/is-chinas-northeast-disappearing-ghost-cities-spread-as-housing-prices-collapse.html

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 18, 2026, 01:56 AM

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According to the UN the fertility rate of ultra impoverished  South Sudan crashed from above 5.0 in 2014 to just ~3.85 less than a decade later (in 2023).   Over the same period births plummeted from around 440,000 in 2014 to just ~330,000 in 2023.  Demographic collapse is happening almost everywhere.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 18, 2026, 01:56 AM

~200,000 war brides & military spouses immigrated to the U. S. from East & Southeast Asia between 1945 & 1975. The specific number of spouses from 1947 to 1975 from Japan totaled 66,681, from Korea 28,205, from the Philippines 51,747, from Thailand 11,660, & from Vietnam 8,040.

Interesting piece of military & demographic history.  If this sort of demographic/social history interests you then you may want to look at David Courtright’s “Violent Land: Single Men and Social Disorder from the Frontier to the Inner City” & similar books.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 13, 2026, 08:18 AM

Turkmenistan has recently acknowledged that mass emigration is a major crisis and dramatically increased restrictions on emigration. But as such a high percentage of the Turkmen population has already left it may be a case of too little too late. https…

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 13, 2026, 08:18 AM

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The ultra religious in Israel are the ones driving Israeli Jewish TFR so far above Muslim & Christian TFR in the region. Ultra-Orthodox Haredi, while politically supporting Netanyahu’s coalition government and policy in the region, overwhelmingly refuse to serve in the military. The see the IDF as an aggressive secularizing force.

The spectacular increase in the percentage of Israel that will be Haredi in 2050, and the corresponding decline in the proportion of secular Israelis, will obviously have profound economic and national security implications for Israel.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 11, 2026, 09:21 AM

Central Asian Gen Alpha to be larger than that of Russia despite having around half the population. Even if fertility rates continue to decline, Central Asia (TJ, KZ, UZ, KG, TM) likely to have brighter demographic future than most. Only mass emigration…

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 10, 2026, 04:50 AM

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Central Asian Gen Alpha to be larger than that of Russia despite having around half the population. Even if fertility rates continue to decline, Central Asia (TJ, KZ, UZ, KG, TM) likely to have brighter demographic future than most. Only mass emigration holds them back.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 8, 2026, 04:13 PM

Countries never see how bad emigration can be for them until it’s far too late. Colombia could easily turn into jumbo Bulgaria or Romania demographically within decades. El Salvador in similar condition but much smaller country. Cuba in an emigration & low fertility spiral.

What Eastern Europe went through from 1990-2010 much of Latam seems doomed to repeat.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 8, 2026, 04:13 PM

Russian births hit their lowest level on record in 2025. Under 1.2 million Russians were born and over 1.8 million died. The fertility rate of the Russian federation also broke below 1.4 for the first time in almost two decades.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-fertility-rate-falls-for-10th-straight-year-reaching-new-low-15285

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 8, 2026, 04:13 PM

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Many Russia observers in the media consistently overlook the 2008-2016 Russian comeback cohort. That cohort saw between 1,713,000-1,942,000 births annually. The youngest in this cohort turn 18 this year. Russian conscription age begins at 18. Russian 1994-2003 cohort was the smallest & is currently impacting births.

Even if TFR stays low (below 1.4) expect births to steadily increase over the next decade as the larger cohort born from 2008 onward gradually becomes parents.

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 8, 2026, 04:13 PM

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Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we…

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Demographics Now and Then

Mar 7, 2026, 04:42 AM

Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we saw in Taiwan (~0.72).

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2023127994219528351

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