Thus, the Strait of Hormuz has become the literal center of this war—and possibly the reason it could end prematurely in the future. At the moment, nearly all the pressure being directed at the President of the United States concerns this exact point on the map.
Instead of fully closing the strait, Tehran has effectively restricted passage for Arab states, the United States, the European Union, and parts of Asia, while continuing to export its own oil. It does so partly through a “shadow fleet” that delivers crude to countries such as China. In other words, the war is ongoing—Iran’s air force, navy, Revolutionary Guard units, military industry, and weapons depots are reportedly being destroyed—yet Iran continues to load oil at its ports and ship it through the same Strait of Hormuz, passing right by a large American naval presence, while preventing others from doing the same.
Even more striking is that Iran is now selling more oil than before the war, benefiting from the surge in global prices. Two factors explain this: China’s continued purchases and Donald Trump’s reluctance to trigger an even greater spike in energy prices. The same logic also explains the easing of sanctions on Russia.
Meanwhile, the world is searching for alternative routes. Tankers are being redirected to Saudi terminals connected to pipelines that cross the desert. However, these routes currently lack sufficient capacity, and the risk of Iranian attacks remains.
Israel and the United States are therefore considering naval escorts for tankers. Trump mentioned this possibility several days ago, but the plan has not yet been implemented because the threats of Iranian speedboat attacks, naval mines, and drone strikes have not disappeared. In fact, it may take only a few cheap kamikaze drones per day to convince commercial ships to avoid the strait altogether.
For now, there is no final solution. Countries suffering economic losses have begun slowly sending their own naval vessels to the region. Donald Trump has called on allies to join this effort, and the White House has announced the formation of a coalition to protect shipping in the strait. Yet the journey from many allied ports to the Persian Gulf is not quick.
This crisis is placing increasing urgency on Washington. If the situation is not resolved soon, it could halt the war before its strategic objectives are achieved.
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