Alpha please Monday market update
In the expression “slowly, then all at once,” it feels like we may be entering the “all at once” phase of the cycle. Last week, BTC broke to new ATHs, crossing the $120k level after a long period of consolidation. With it comes renewed heat in the market. It’s risk-on season.
Here are some of the key catalysts I see for crypto in the second half of the year:
-Macro remains a tailwind. The outlook looks good, and the passing of the “big beautiful bill” reinforces the view that Trump is committing to solving the debt problem through growth. This implies continued liquidity expansion with pro-growth policy (US will not follow restrictive policy and the money printer stays on). Historically, this is a strong setup for risk assets, at least in the mid term (before potential backlash of such policy).
-On top of that, there are rumors Powell may soon resign. If that happens, and a Trump "yes-man” replaces Powell, the easing cycle and rate cuts could accelerate even faster.
-Geopolitical tensions, which were previously seen as a major risk, now seem to be under control (at least for the time being).
-US equities and gold are at ATHs and continue to trend higher.
-Crypto stocks are hot right now ($COIN, $CRCL, $HOOD, etc.). This is bringing back a lot of attention and capital into the space.
-More crypto ETFs are likely coming (with staking). Plus, efforts are being made on the regulatory side to make the listing process simpler and faster. This could open the door for more crypto products and bring a passive demand flow for some quality alts.
-Strategic reserve corporate play is also growing fast and represents another tailwind. Specifically, SBET and ETH treasury companies are hot right now. This can be a positive catalyst for ETH. And if ETH is doing well, that is usually good for alts.
-Now, in terms of price action, the BTC chart looks really clean and bullish on the weekly. We have broken a clear zone of resistance after a tight range, into new highs, with strong momentum. This is usually a good setup r/r wise.
-Also worth noting that BTC dominance seems near a local high with some signs of a potential reversal, after being “up only” since the beginning of the cycle. This coincides with a renewed interest in alts, with significant capital flowing back into the market (the Pump ICO selling out in minutes is another clear signal to me of excitement). It might be time for some quality alts to start outperforming BTC.
Of course, there are still potential risks along the way. Nothing is ever all white or black. So remember that at all times, risk management is your priority. But my general view is that for now, the r/r for crypto is skewed to the upside.
Now is the time to lock in, have strong convictions, and let your thesis play out.
