A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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The Awaited RBA Meeting Is Now Behind Us. Here's What Happened:

AUD/USD is holding firm near 0.709, building on the 1.3% rally from the prior session. Near-term support sits around 0.69500, while resistance is the 0.72000 area (recent multi-year high).

AUD is catching a bid after the RBA delivered a 25bp hike to 4.10%, but the bigger takeaway was the message: the debate was about timing, not direction. Even with a tight 5–4 split, Governor Bullock repeatedly flagged inflation risk and made it clear the board isn’t convinced policy is restrictive enough yet to bring inflation back to target.

Markets took the tone as hawkish and pushed up the probability of another hike in May, while a move to 4.35% remains priced by August. Core inflation around 3.4% is still too sticky, which keeps the tightening bias alive. The split vote also reflects added uncertainty from the Iran conflict—but the signal is still the same: the RBA is leaning toward doing more, not less.

- Alan

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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The EU Says They Weren't Consulted About The War. So They Shouldn't Pay the Price

EUR/USD is stabilizing after a sharp drop that pushed the pair to its weakest level since last July.

The euro is caught between geopolitics, soft data, and central bank risk. Germany isn’t helping either—investor confidence fell sharply in March as markets worry rising prices could derail the recovery.

On the positive side, EU officials (Kallas) are signaling openness to talks with Iran, stating, “The main concern of EU countries is that they were not consulted on the start of the war in Iran or its objectives.” Following that, Kallas said, “The door is not closed on participation in the Strait of Hormuz, and we have to find diplomatic ways to keep trade open to avoid a food and energy crisis.” This openness to engage Iran supports hopes of restoring oil flows—especially after NATO didn’t step in when Trump called for ships.

Next catalyst is the ECB meeting Thursday, where rates are expected to hold.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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AUD/USD Up 1.10% as RBA Hike Bets Rise on Oil-Driven Inflation Risk

AUD/USD is recovering, back near 0.70 after last week’s pullback. This area is important—holding above it keeps the rebound constructive, while rejection would signal the bounce is losing steam.

AUD is catching a bid as markets lean more hawkish on the RBA. Middle East escalation is pushing oil higher and reviving inflation risk, which keeps the “rates up” narrative alive for Australia. Over the weekend, the U. S. struck targets near Kharg Island and warned it could expand attacks on energy infrastructure if Hormuz shipping is disrupted—adding fuel to the inflation story.

The key catalyst is the RBA decision Tuesday. Markets are looking for a second consecutive hike to 4.1%, and are pricing the possibility of additional hikes into year-end, potentially taking the cash rate above the prior cycle peak. If the hike comes through, the real market mover will be guidance—how far the RBA signals it’s willing to go if inflation stays sticky

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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DXY Falls Below 100. 99.5 Becomes the Key Test

DXY has slipped back below 100, easing off last week’s highs. The key zone I’m watching is a pullback into 99.5—how price reacts there will tell us if this is a healthy reset or the start of a deeper unwind.

The dollar is cooling as oil eases and markets reassess Iran-related inflation risk. Signs that Iranian tankers may be allowed through Hormuz have taken heat out of crude, temporarily reducing the inflation shock that was supporting USD. The endgame is still unclear, and headlines can flip sentiment quickly.

The next major catalyst is the Fed later this week. Rates are expected to stay on hold, but traders will focus on how policymakers frame the recent energy spike and what it means for inflation and borrowing costs. Right now, markets are only pricing one 25bp cut, likely not before December.

Oil and yields are the tell. If yields flare, markets are leaning hawkish and USD gets fuel. If yields stay suppressed, dollar upside likely stays capped.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 20, 2026, 04:27 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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GBP/USD Slides for a Fourth Day as UK Stagnation Meets Safe-Haven USD Demand

GBP/USD is sliding again, on track for a fourth straight daily loss. Price action remains heavy, and until the pair finds a clear base, rebounds are likely to be treated as corrective moves within a broader risk-off downtrend.

Sterling is getting hit from two angles: weak UK data and a stronger safe-haven dollar. UK growth unexpectedly stagnated in January, while longer-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly high—an ugly mix heading into an energy shock environment.

The Middle East conflict has revived oil-driven inflation risk, which makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates even as domestic demand looks soft. The market is leaning toward a hold next week rather than a cut, with some traders even pricing a more hawkish path into 2026. But the counterpoint is simple: if growth stays weak and the labor market cools, sustained tightening expectations may prove excessive—especially if energy prices eventually roll over.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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Congrats to the dollar bulls out there :)

- Nick

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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DXY Hits 100 as Oil Shock Drives Safe-Haven Demand

DXY is on track for a second straight weekly gain and has broken out, tagging the next major resistance at 100. With price now testing a psychological level, the key is whether DXY can hold above it—acceptance keeps momentum intact, rejection risks a pullback.

This is a classic risk-off, energy-shock USD bid. The Middle East war is pushing investors into the dollar while energy-sensitive currencies like the euro and yen weaken. A sustained oil spike is especially negative for the eurozone and Japan, which rely heavily on crude imports, while the U. S. is relatively insulated as a net exporter.

Oil has become the main macro driver again: higher crude raises inflation risk and threatens growth, keeping markets defensive. Even with repeated efforts to calm supply fears—strategic reserve releases, temporary policy measures, and signs of limited tanker movement—the market is still pricing a meaningful risk premium.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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EdgeFinder score history indicator added to the Forex Scorecard 💪 🪄

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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A Breakout or Another Wick To The Downside?

DXY is grinding higher near 99.4, extending gains for a fourth straight session and hovering near two-month highs. The next level to watch is 99.50, a zone that has rejected price in the past—acceptance above it would signal a cleaner breakout.

The dollar is staying supported as the Iran conflict drags on and oil remains bid, keeping inflation risk elevated and reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate backdrop. U. S. data has been steady: jobless claims came in slightly better at 212K, and the trade deficit narrowed in January—both modestly USD-supportive.

Next catalyst is the Fed. Rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, but markets will focus on the dot plot and forward guidance. With inflation risk rising through energy, the bar for cuts stays high, which keeps the dollar underpinned.

- Alan

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 17, 2026, 01:16 PM

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Dow Down -1.05%: Higher Rates Are Not Good

The Dow is back under pressure, down about 1.05%, as global equities sell off on another leg higher in oil. Price action remains risk-off, and until energy cools or rates stabilize, rallies will likely stay capped.

This is an oil-driven macro shock feeding straight into equities. The market’s reaction is telling: crude barely blinked even after a record 400M-barrel reserve release, which signals traders are pricing a longer disruption window, not a quick fix. Even at that size, the release only covers roughly 2–4 weeks of global demand—if Gulf flows remain impaired beyond that, the supply picture can tighten again fast.

With that timeline, markets are already shifting to the second-order effects: higher inflation risk and tighter central bank policy paths. Fed pricing has turned more hawkish, with the second cut effectively gone and markets now leaning toward barely one cut in 2026. February CPI was in line, but it’s backward-looking.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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GBPUSD Daily: Staying short for now.

- Weak economic data out of the UK recently, with dollar strength boosted by geopolitical uncertainty
- Inflation data has been higher than expected for the US. This signals perhaps less rate cuts are coming this year (strong for dollar)
- Technical downtrend remains intact on the 4H

- Nick

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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GBP/USD Slips as Oil Shock Risk Hits Energy-Exposed UK

GBP/USD is grinding lower as sterling rejects the 200-Day MA. For now, rallies look capped and price action reflects a market leaning defensive.

With the Middle East conflict threatening oil flows, Britain stands out as an import-reliant economy that’s sensitive to higher fuel costs. Even with talk of potential reserve releases, crude is staying elevated, keeping inflation risk alive and pressuring the UK outlook.

That macro pressure is starting to show up in rates too: UK government bonds sold off, pushing 10-year gilt yields higher. Higher yields don’t automatically help GBP in this context—if yields are rising because inflation and growth risks are worsening, it can still be sterling-negative.

Global risk drivers have also pulled attention away from domestic issues, but political uncertainty hasn’t disappeared. Some analysts warn investors may be underpricing May election risk, adding another layer of uncertainty for GBP.

- Alan

A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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CPI Is Behind Us. Now Watch Yields For Clues

The U. S. 10-year yield is edging higher again, up to 4.18%, marking a second straight gain and sitting near a one-month high. The driver is still the Iran war’s spillover into oil: even with brief relief on reserve-release headlines, crude remains elevated, keeping the market focused on an energy-driven inflation rebound.

February CPI came in as expected—stable, but still above target—while the full impact of the oil surge hasn’t shown up in the data yet. With that backdrop, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week, and the market has repriced cuts down to roughly one 25bp cut, possibly in September, versus around 2.5 cuts before the war.

US10Y is showing upside pressure in yields. Remember, bond prices and yields move inversely: when Treasuries are bought, prices rise and the fixed coupon implies a lower yield; when they’re sold, prices fall and the same coupon implies a higher yield.

Watch yields for direction on the dollar.

- Alan

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Mar 16, 2026, 12:53 AM

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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Mar 13, 2026, 09:47 AM

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