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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
A few thoughts on tomorrow’s “moment of truth.” I wouldn’t rule out a scenario where the US and Iran fail to reach a deal, but Trump and his team still try to frame it as a win
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
Overall, expecting high volatility on Wednesday.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $76,493
ETH: $2,327
Fear & Greed Index: 33 (Fear)
BTC Dominance: 60.02%
😎 We’re still moving toward the key target around $77K. Above that, there’s not much for price to do — at least based on the liquidation heatmap. But it’s important to keep in mind that it doesn’t always reflect real liquidity levels.
🔭 A few thoughts on tomorrow’s “moment of truth.” I wouldn’t rule out a scenario where the US and Iran fail to reach a deal, but Trump and his team still try to frame it as a win. Expect narrative management, expectation control — the usual playbook.
That could trigger a short-term move higher, but in that case, the following downside could be even more painful.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
😱 The U. S. Supreme Court has officially ruled that most of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were unlawful. This decision marks a major turning point in the dispute over whether a president has the authority to introduce broad import duties without congressional…
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
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Overall, expecting high volatility on Wednesday.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
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📉 Market Overview
BTC: $74,826
ETH: $2,294
Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.92%
👋 Welcome everyone, and happy start to the new trading week.
📈 On Friday, we once again confirmed the upper boundary of the channel, followed by a move down throughout the weekend. I still expect further downside, but it may come with upside wicks — roughly toward the $77K zone. That’s where short-term liquidity is currently sitting, based on the liquidation heatmap.
❗️ The long-term outlook remains unchanged, so I won’t repeat it. I’ll just add that in the current environment, no one can confidently predict where the market will be in 6–12 months — the impact of geopolitics is simply too strong.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
the impact of geopolitics is simply too strong.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $75,762
ETH: $2,352
Fear & Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.68%
🤑 Yesterday’s scenario remains in play — the next target is taking out the $76K high. After that, it’ll be interesting to look at short liquidation data. If the numbers are significant, it would add another argument for a reversal and a move to hunt long stops.
The geopolitical backdrop also looks more encouraging. There’s hope we’ll soon see clearer signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Of course, the region is unlikely to ever become fully stable, but the current intensity of the conflict is a dead end both economically and from a humanitarian perspective.
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
the next target is taking out the $76K high
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Cryp2day
Apr 23, 2026, 10:47 PM
followed by a move lower to target longs
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
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I’d prefer to let the market consolidate before making any decisions on new trades.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
If it actually reopens, it would suggest this ceasefire is more than just political rhetoric.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
📉 Market Overview
BTC: $71,267
ETH: $2,185
Fear & Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.53%
🫠 Despite the positive headlines, the market continues to take profits around the $72–73K range. The reason is quite straightforward — regardless of loud statements coming out of the White House, very few participants actually believe in a sustainable, long-term peace scenario. Ongoing strikes in Lebanon only reinforce that uncertainty.
⚠️ Some representatives from the Iranian side are already hinting that the ceasefire may have been violated and that they are not planning to adhere to it. I’m not sure this reflects an official stance yet, but for now I’m considering a scenario where the conflict continues.
The current move still looks like manipulation to me, and I’m not rushing into longs.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
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😒 Loud take, but it feels more like hype than a realistic scenario.
Yes, a return to $10K is theoretically possible, but it would require more than just a downtrend — it would take a full-blown systemic shock. The market structure is very different now — institutions, ETFs, and liquidity aren’t going anywhere.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
In any case, my advice is to stay out of trades today and tomorrow. Let’s see how this ultimatum plays out, and then get back to analysis.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $71,787
ETH: $2,255
Fear & Greed Index: 17 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.24%
😘 So, Trump has announced that a ceasefire has been reached. The parties now have two weeks to potentially move toward a full peace agreement. Naturally, markets are reacting with a push up, and we’re once again testing a key resistance zone. I’d prefer to let the market consolidate before making any decisions on new trades.
❗️ Of course, any ceasefire can be broken. For now, it’s crucial to watch the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. If it actually reopens, it would suggest this ceasefire is more than just political rhetoric.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
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💻 Interesting stat from https://hyperdash.com/explore/cohorts — profitable traders are currently shorting, while most losses are coming from those blindly longing. Of course, that doesn’t mean longs are off the table, but trying to catch knives on every bit of positive news is a losing strategy.
If you do believe in a bounce from current levels, it’s better to stick to spot.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $69,158
ETH: $2,129
Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.06%
⏱ Alright, ladies and gentlemen — the moment of truth has arrived. Today either Iran “disappears from the map” or we get world peace (just kidding).
❗️ Jokes aside, I don’t expect anything meaningful to happen today. It’s hard to believe Iran will back down, so the US will likely have to keep pushing.
In any case, my advice is to stay out of trades today and tomorrow. Let’s see how this ultimatum plays out, and then get back to analysis.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
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↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $68,845
ETH: $2,156
Fear & Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.05%
🚬 Instead of the breakout to the downside I expected, price made a final push toward the upper boundary of the wedge. The reason — real market expectations that the US and Iran may reach an agreement within the next 24 hours.
❓ Honestly, I don’t quite understand where this confidence is coming from, but I don’t see much point in arguing with it. Like any reasonable person, I’d welcome the end of the war — even if it goes against my outlook.
🚀 If no deal is reached, Trump has warned of “hell on earth” for Iran. So the current move can be seen either as the start of a bullish trend or just a simple manipulation before another leg down.
In the end, this won’t be decided on the charts — but in the offices of the White House.
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Cryp2day
Apr 15, 2026, 12:50 AM
🎥 Video
📊 Prediction markets are becoming a new macro indicator.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are now repricing the odds of escalation around Iran in real time — and according to institutional desks, this data is already being used as a полноценный risk signal.
It’s essentially a market of probabilities: not opinions, but real money backing specific scenarios (war / de-escalation, etc.).
What’s interesting is that they sometimes move faster than traditional media — and even show correlation with BTC price action.
The market is learning to watch not just charts, but probabilities of events.
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $71,410
ETH: $2,183
Fear & Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 58.96%
📈 Locally, we’re stuck in a range ($68,900–71,800). I’m not too interested in trading inside it, so I’ll wait for a breakout. If we move up — I’m looking at a short-term long towards 74–75K. If we break down — shorts towards ~65K make sense.
😎 Markets seem to be pricing in a ceasefire between the US and Iran, although it’s hard for me to understand where this confidence is coming from. Despite US statements, it doesn’t look like the sides will reach agreement on key issues, such as the nuclear program.
With that in mind, curious to hear your take: how long do you think this conflict will last?
👍 — This war will drag on
🔥 — This war will end soon
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
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Where exactly are we going — and why?
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
At the same time, Iran claims it’s all nonsense and says it will retaliate against the West.
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
↗️ Market Overview
BTC: $71,218
ETH: $2,162
Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 59.11%
🤓 Despite yesterday’s bullish push, we’ve once again hit a strong resistance zone. While moving averages and price action suggest potential continuation, a lot now depends on the outcome of the Iran–US negotiations. Any escalation likely means downside, any easing opens the door for upside. In this context, technicals are secondary.
That said, I’ll stick to my view: even a local move up here won’t convince me that the dump is over. I still believe we’re likely to revisit levels below 60K before any meaningful continuation to the upside.
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
📉 Market Overview
BTC: $68,660
ETH: $2,053
Fear & Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
BTC Dominance: 58.89%
📈 The steady decline continues. I see any bounces at this point as manipulation and look for short opportunities whenever possible. This especially applies to altcoins, which, as usual, are dropping even harder than BTC.
😭 I don’t see any positive catalysts in the near term. Sure, they could come from news related to the Middle East, Ukraine, or even the Strait of Hormuz. But for now, the situation looks tense, and any local economic positives are unlikely to outweigh the broader geopolitical backdrop.
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
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Wow, maybe London knows something — haven’t seen a green candle this clean in a while. Still, I view this move as manipulation. There’s a heavy resistance zone above, and I think that’s where shorts make sense.
How are you positioned for this week?
👍 — bullish
🔥 — bearish
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Cryp2day
Mar 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
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Sure, they could come from news related to the Middle East, Ukraine, or even the Strait of Hormuz.
