🇺🇸🇮🇷🔉 UPD... PART II
👤Trump is currently only doing one thing: stalling for time and calming the stock market, while the insane war minister is preparing a ground operation in a hurry.
🇺🇸No one was prepared for this, so everything is being done in a hurry, but now the US is transferring all its ground forces to the Middle East. In 1-2 weeks, they will definitely try something: take control of Kharg Island or Qeshm. There's also the option of landing in poorly integrated into the Iranian state Baluchistan, which borders Afghanistan (though, thanks to Biden, there are no Americans there anymore).
Mobilizing all these ground forces costs billions of dollars and huge political points, which requires the dismissal of a bunch of generals and lower-ranking executives. Of course, this is not done to make peace deals.
Going down the path of escalation is certainly terrible for Trump, but stopping now and allowing Iran to grow into an energy superpower, controlling a key region and cooperating with the main enemies of the US - that would be a disaster, which even Trump's enemies wouldn't let him do.
💲🔽This would sign the death warrant for the petrodollar and suddenly there would be about a trillion of unsecured dollar issuance on the market. This would lead to the collapse of everything: mortgages, the stock market, the AI bubble, and much more. Including all space initiatives and Elon Musk, of course.
So there's no way back. The only way out is forward. Of course, it's a slim hope, but it's there. If we manage to pressure Iran, the game will turn around completely and it will be easy to pressure the rest of the US's enemies.
🇺🇸 Trump proposes to increase the military budget from $1.05 trillion to $1.5 trillion (+42%), while simultaneously closing down a bunch of social programs.
In general, if American elites are globally FOR putting pressure on Iran (and this is currently the case), then theoretically the budget expansion could be pushed through. This wouldn't even be a serious militarization. Especially since the American military-industrial complex, whose lobby is incredibly powerful, would benefit greatly from this.
But Trump needs at least some successes on the ground right now. The main thing is not to lose investors in US government debt in the form of Gulf countries. Otherwise, it would be easier to first dump him through impeachment, and then deal with Iran. This is where his trademark peace deals might come into play.
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