You can spend years guessing what investors want.
Or you can just listen.
At the end of 2025, a16z published 48 ideas across three articles called "Big Ideas 2026." Not vague predictions. Specific bets from a fund managing $90B+.
I took their playbook as a starting point, then went deeper, analyzing Sequoia, Bessemer, Lightspeed, Y Combinator, General Catalyst, NFX, Accel, Index Ventures, and Founders Fund.
The result: 10 themes where the biggest checks in VC are headed.
1. AI Agents — a16z, Sequoia, Lightspeed, YC, Bessemer
(Cognition $10.2B, Sierra $10B, Mercor $10B)
2. Vertical AI — Bessemer, a16z, Lightspeed, YC
(Harvey $8B, Glean $7.2B, EvenUp $2B+)
3. AI Infrastructure — Lightspeed, Accel, Sequoia, a16z
(Cerebras $23B, Groq $6.9B, Crusoe $10B)
4. Healthcare AI — Bessemer, General Catalyst, a16z, NFX
(Abridge $5.3B, Isomorphic Labs, Tempus AI)
5. Defense & Space — Founders Fund, General Catalyst, Bessemer, NFX
(Anduril $30.5B, Helsing $13B, Saronic $4B)
6. Cybersecurity — Lightspeed, NFX, a16z, Index
(Cyera $9B, Wiz→Google $32B, Protect AI→Palo Alto)
7. AI in Prof. Services — Lightspeed, Sequoia, YC
(Clio $5B, Hebbia, Basis)
8. Robotics & Autonomy — Lightspeed, Founders Fund, a16z, Sequoia
(Figure AI $39B, Waymo $126B, Physical Intelligence $5.6B)
9. Climate & Energy — General Catalyst, Accel, a16z
(Commonwealth Fusion ~$3B raised, Form Energy, Fervo Energy)
10. Fintech & Stablecoins — YC, Sequoia, General Catalyst, a16z
(Ramp $32B, Fireblocks $8B, Bridge→Stripe $1.1B)
Five themes have 4+ funds betting simultaneously. That's not hype. That's consensus.
When a fund managing $90B tells you what they'll invest in, that's a door swinging open.
Walk through it.
Full breakdown with analysis of each theme, link: https://migratorg.substack.com/p/where-the-smart-money-goes-10-startup.
