Growth Rate
Wanted to write something that's been on my mind since morning.
There's this concept of growth rate. Paul Graham was the first person I read it from. Maybe not the first person to point it out, but the first one who put it in my head and didn't leave.
When you're building a startup, growth rate is almost the only thing that matters. Compound 1% a week and you double in 70. Compound 5% and you double in 14. The starting number is almost nothing.
The same idea works almost everywhere else. People just don't apply it.
I studied ACCA for a while. Had a great teacher. Whenever I asked him about jobs or careers, he'd land on the same point. Growth rate. You can start anywhere, even the lowest position, but how high can you climb the ladder, and how fast?
That's growth rate.
And most jobs have terrible growth rates. Some have none at all. A janitor doesn't become a manager. Grunt work stays grunt work.
Yet most people chase stability. Salary, routine, predictable outcomes. Neat little cages.
Real upside almost always comes from optionality. Things with limited downside and open-ended upside. Low risk, uncapped reward. One small move pays for years.
One meeting. One intro. One skill. One weird side project.
So collect as many of these as you can.
If something gives you exposure to luck, people, leverage, or new information, keep it. Don't throw it away because it looks small today. Most of them won't pay off. The few that do will pay for the rest.
Cities matter. People love saying the internet made location irrelevant. Cute theory. Mostly false.
Cities compress randomness. More smart people, more events, more accidental collisions, more doors opening for no obvious reason. You walk outside and the probability changes.
Rural comfort can be peaceful. Sure. But it often cuts you off from positive uncertainty.
Breakthroughs happen at dinners, receptions, side chats. Not in careful emails written by tired bureaucrats. History moves through hallways more than boardrooms.
So go to parties.
Go where interesting people gather. Go where conversations happen. Go to the thing you almost didn't go to. Especially that one.
If you're a scientist, one comment over dinner can become a paper. If you build companies, one casual chat can become a hire, an investor, a partner, an idea you couldn't have written down on your own.
If crowds drain you, use proxies. Send friends, teammates, associates.
Have antennas everywhere.
Certainty is capped. Optimize for exposure to upside.
Now back to the original idea. Growth rate.
Most people undervalue it badly.
Pick places where you'll grow fast. And while you're there, stand in the path of as many free lottery tickets as you can find.
And if you’d like to join something like that, we’re going on a hike this Sunday with a few people I like. Since you’re in my channel, you’re invited. https://www.walkandtalk.uz/join.html.
