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Latest Posts

QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Market Colour, 13 April 2026
Fade the Blockade?

Markets were hoping for a deal, but positioned for disappointment. US–Iran talks broke down over the weekend, pushing oil back above $100 and triggering a risk-off move. BTC ran into resistance at $74k, while ETH slipped from $2,330 to $2,180 as near-term expectations reset.

Trump has escalated with blockade threats on Hormuz, while Iran signalled potential disruption via Bab el-Mandeb. The risk is clear, but enforcement is not. Any attempt to intercept major shipping flows, particularly involving China, would risk a broader escalation that markets are not priced for.

That scepticism is showing up in crypto. Implied vols and skew have normalised toward pre-conflict levels, and both BTC and ETH continue to absorb geopolitical noise, pointing to a steady underlying bid. ETF flows remain supportive, with IBIT seeing $612.1m in inflows over the past week.

With enforcement flagged from 10:00 ET, the focus now shifts from rhetoric to execution. After multiple delays, credibility is becoming part of the trade.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-12/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

📷 Photo

We’re thrilled to welcome Koichi Kano to QCP as our Head of Japan, a key milestone in our continued expansion into the Japanese market.

With over 25 years of experience in global financial markets, Koichi has held senior roles across FX and Fixed Income, including at Citigroup. Since transitioning into digital assets, he has contributed to major international initiatives such as Project Guardian (MAS) and Project Agora (BIS/IIF), bringing deep institutional expertise and regulatory insight.

As Japan’s digital asset ecosystem continues to mature and institutional participation accelerates, we see a strong opportunity to be at the forefront of this next phase. Based in Tokyo, Koichi will lead our efforts on the ground, strengthening partnerships and delivering institutional-grade solutions across derivatives, spot trading, and structured products.

Read the full press release to learn more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-group-appoints-veteran-markets-leader-as-head-of-japan/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Market Colour, 8 April 2026
A Pause Being Mistaken for Peace

BTC moved back above $71k after a conditional two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Risk assets reacted as expected, equities rallied and oil pulled back into the low-$90s as immediate supply risks were repriced. However, this still looks like a pause rather than a resolution, with the ceasefire dependent on how passage through Hormuz holds.

That caution is warranted. Recent strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure highlight that disruption risks persist, even if shipping resumes.

Macro remains mixed. US payrolls rebounded, but underlying labour indicators are softening, leaving the Fed balancing weaker growth against renewed energy-driven inflation. This week’s CPI is the next key test.

In options, the move looks more like a headline squeeze than a full risk reset. Front-end vols have compressed, but skew remains bid for downside, suggesting hedging demand is still intact. Positioning shows call interest around $75k to $85k, with support lower at $60k to $65k, leaving $74k as the key level to break.

For now, markets are pricing de-escalation, but not conviction. The relief rally is real, but fragile, with geopolitics and macro likely to determine whether it can sustain.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-11/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Weekly Wrap, 7–11 April 2026
Ceasefire, but not clearance.

Markets moved from pricing a stagflation shock to a sharp relief rally, as a US–Iran ceasefire pushed oil lower and supported risk assets. BTC climbed from $67.5k to $72.2k alongside the rebound, while ETF inflows strengthened midweek before fading.

The takeaway: the path shifted, but the regime did not.

https://www.qcpgroup.com/newsletter/ for the full breakdown, including:
• Oil, rates, and FX transmission dynamics
• Cross-asset positioning and flows
• Institutional crypto demand and options positioning
• Key macro catalysts shaping next week’s outlook

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

Quantum Risk Is Real, But Not Crypto-Specific, 1 Apr 2026

Google researchers have suggested that quantum computing could challenge today’s cryptographic security standards with fewer resources than previously assumed. But the implications extend far beyond crypto. That same security standard underpins banking systems, encrypted communications, and global financial infrastructure, meaning any breakthrough would be systemic, not isolated.

At the same time, the gap between theory and reality remains wide. Current quantum systems are still orders of magnitude below what would be required to materially threaten encryption, leaving a meaningful window for both crypto and traditional finance to adapt.

This is less an immediate risk and more a structural shift already being priced into long-term security roadmaps. But if the foundations of digital trust are eventually tested, where does the real vulnerability lie, crypto, or the system it mirrors?

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/quantum-risk-is-real-but-not-crypto-specific/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Weekly Wrap, 30 March–3 April 2026
Macro kept crypto in check, but resilience stood out.

BTC held near $67k despite rising geopolitical tension and oil volatility, while ETH stayed firm and alts lagged. Positioning cleaned up, selling pressure eased, and short-dated hedging remained active, pointing to a less stretched market.

The takeaway: support is there, but it is narrow. BTC is bid, not broadly chased.

https://www.qcpgroup.com/newsletter/ for the full breakdown, including:
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Flow and volatility trends
• Key macro catalysts to watch
• Outlook for BTC, ETH, and broader risk assets

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Market Colour, 6 April 2026
Act Tough or Same Bluff?

Trump has again deferred his decision on Iran, extending the deadline for potential strikes to Tuesday, marking the fourth postponement. As in prior weeks, escalation rhetoric has been followed by signals of negotiation, a pattern markets are increasingly fading. Crude is softer and equity futures remain stable, suggesting reduced urgency around immediate escalation risk.

Crypto, meanwhile, has remained resilient. BTC and ETH pushed above $69k and $2,140 into the Asia open, triggering roughly $200m in short liquidations in thin conditions. Despite geopolitical noise, price action continues to look more stabilisation than stress.

In options, implied vols have drifted lower post quarter-end expiry, now sitting near pre-selloff levels. Skew is also normalising, indicating that hedging demand has eased despite persistent macro uncertainty.

Institutional flows remain supportive. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32bn in net inflows in March, while Strategy has resumed accumulation after a brief pause. On the Ethereum side, Bitmine continues to add to positions.

For now, markets are leaning risk-on, though the durability of this move will be tested as US markets reopen. Positioning suggests investors are not bracing for an imminent escalation scenario.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-6-april-2026/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Market Colour, 26 March 2026
Quiet Range, Loud Backdrop

BTC is hovering around $70k, and the tape still reads as quiet consolidation rather than stress. Macro remains fragile on renewed Middle East headlines, with oil retaining a geopolitical premium even after easing off the highs. Against that backdrop, BTC’s resilience stands out: recent net outflows suggest coins are being pulled off venues rather than positioned for sale, while BTC dominance continues to edge higher, reinforcing a more defensive tilt within crypto.

The bigger macro question is that markets have repriced the inflation shock faster than the growth shock. Risk assets have absorbed higher oil and a rates reset, but the extent of any growth damage remains unclear if geopolitical stress persists. That leaves BTC in an in-between regime, no longer a pure high-beta proxy for equities, but not yet a consistent safe haven either, keeping price action range-bound and headline-driven.

Options are telling a similar story. Implied vols are easing on the day and week, carry remains positive, and the curve stays in mild contango. Downside hedges are still in demand, even if not at extremes, suggesting caution is being priced, not panic.

For now, BTC looks accumulated on dips but not chased. Until geopolitics stabilises or macro repricing moves further, this remains a headline-driven range market rather than the start of a clean trend.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-9/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

QCP Market Colour, 30 March 2026
BTC Holds Range as U. S. Holds Fire

BTC briefly dipped to $65k in thin Asia hours before rebounding into the $66k to $67k range, continuing a familiar pattern of weekend weakness followed by early-week stabilisation. Despite last Friday’s post-expiry sell-off and unresolved tensions in Iran, BTC has held the broader $65k to $70k range, even as it tracks toward a sixth consecutive red monthly close, reflecting still-fragile sentiment.

That said, BTC’s relative performance has been notable. It has outpaced gold and equities since the Iran conflict began, suggesting some resilience even as macro remains strained. With Trump’s 10-day pause on strikes approaching its April 6 deadline, markets are bracing for potential escalation, keeping BTC range-bound and headline-driven.

Macro and geopolitics remain tightly linked. Elevated oil prices and ongoing supply chain risks, particularly around key chokepoints, continue to reinforce a stagflationary backdrop. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war risk premiums are unlikely to ease quickly, leaving inflation pressures sticky.

In options, post-expiry vol compression has been muted, with traders still paying for gamma and overwriters largely sidelined. The surface reflects caution, not panic, consistent with a market that is stable, but not yet ready to break higher.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-10/

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QCP Broadcast

May 17, 2026, 04:13 PM

🎥 Video

Eid Mubarak from all of us at QCP.

Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful and peaceful Eid Al-Adha, filled with reflection, gratitude, and meaningful moments with family and friends.

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

QCP Market Colour, 2 March 2026
Crypto holds its range as Iran risk rises

Crypto markets remain range-bound as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran intensify. The initial US attack on Iran on Saturday sent BTC and ETH briefly lower to $63,000 and $1,910 before retracing back into their prevailing ranges.

Approximately $300m in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, notable but contained versus the more disorderly deleveraging seen in early February. That points to lighter positioning heading into the weekend, and may also hint that BTC’s “weekend macro hedge” role is facing competition from alternatives such as tokenized gold.

Options markets echoed the restraint. While 1-day implied volatility briefly spiked to 93%, the broader volatility complex stayed measured, with front-end implied vols struggling to hold above 60 vols, and the move was less forceful than last Tuesday at similar spot levels.

Despite the larger scale versus last June’s strike, price action is not flashing panic. Options flows include buyers of 1000x BTC-27MAR26-74k-C and 4000x BTC-27MAR26-75k-C, suggesting some are positioning for a March rebound after five consecutive down months.

Even so, we remain cautious. The key is whether the conflict stays contained. Watch Iran’s capacity for direct escalation, and the US ability to protect maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-3/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

Gold is rallying and crypto is now part of the discussion. Ivan Lee, Head of Trading here at QCP, spoke with Hongbin Jeong on Money FM 89.3’s Wealth Tracker on why Tether is accumulating physical gold and what it signals for investors.

Key points:
• “Digital gold” is a metaphor for Bitcoin’s scarcity, not a replacement for gold’s role
• Gold remains a globally accepted reserve asset, and can help diversify crypto-native balance sheets
• Bitcoin and gold can coexist in portfolios, but they tend to behave differently in risk-off versus liquidity-expansion regimes

Listen to the full interview: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-ivan-lee-on-money-fm-89-3s-wealth-tracker-is-crypto-behind-the-gold-rally/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

🎥 Video

Happy Lunar New Year from all of us at QCP. We wish you a year of good health, prosperity, and continued success. 🧧✨

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

QCP Market Colour, 23 February 2026
No Liberation from Trump’s Tariffs

BTC slipped below $65,000 in early Asia trading, triggering roughly $230 million in long liquidations as markets digested fresh tariff risk and broader geopolitics. Trump’s move to lift global tariffs from 10% to 15% has added another layer of policy uncertainty just as macro risk appetite thins.

With BTC still well below estimated average mining costs of roughly $84,000, the strain is showing in the mining complex, where liquidity is taking priority over accumulation. Bitdeer’s reported full liquidation of its BTC treasury is the latest signal of de-risking as some operators pivot toward AI.

Yet the tape is not uniformly bearish. Liquidation cascades look less violent than earlier this year, and the market’s reaction to headlines has become more measured. Options still price downside protection, but skew is less stretched, suggesting positioning is cleaner.

ETF flows also look more like basis trade unwinds than a wholesale exit. Positioning appears to be shifting, not disappearing.

For the full analysis, including what we’re watching next and the key levels that matter, read the full note on our website. https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-2/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

In CoinDesk’s Asia Morning Briefing last week, our Founder and CIO, Darius Sit, discusses why crypto isn't losing to gold, and how gold’s market depth and buyer base can make it more resilient in risk-off periods, while crypto prices are more sensitive to leverage, forced selling, and how exchanges manage stress.

Key takeaways:
• Not all “risk-off” assets behave the same, hence why market structure matters
• Short-term underperformance doesn’t necessarily equal long-term thesis failure
• Transparent, consistent handling of liquidations is central to investor confidence

Read the full interview to learn more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-darius-sit-in-coindesk-asia-morning-briefing/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

BTC below 66K. Volatility is back in focus.

At yesterday’s panel discussion, QCP’s Head of Trading, Ivan Lee, joined Vincent Liu of Kronos Research and Anton Katz of Talos to share what institutions need to get right on allocation, execution, and risk management in today’s market.

For nearly a decade, QCP has operated through every market cycle, helping clients navigate volatility and build durable digital asset strategies. Read the full event recap and our latest insights on navigating this environment here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-qcp-head-of-trading-ivan-lee-on-digital-assets-as-a-durable-asset-class/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

QCP Market Colour, 11 February 2026

Crypto Rebounds as ETF Inflows Return, but Macro Catalysts Still Loom

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from last week’s lows, fuelling optimism that a near-term bottom may be forming. BTC pushed up to $71,000, while ETH reached $2,150, helping to steady sentiment after the sharp selloff. Near term, we still expect BTC to trade range-bound as the market waits for fresh catalysts.

Flows are doing most of the talking. According to SoSoValue, spot BTC ETFs recorded $145m of net inflows yesterday, building on Friday’s $371m and snapping a run of outflows, a sign that institutional demand is reappearing. Spot ETH ETFs also flipped back to $57m of inflows after three days of outflows, alongside continued accumulation from Tom Lee’s BitMine, offering a constructive backdrop for Ethereum.

Macro has also softened at the margin. U. S.-Iran tensions appear to have eased after last Friday’s talks, while weaker job data has markets leaning toward a potential March rate cut. Attention now turns to NFP and Friday’s CPI, two releases that can quickly reset Fed expectations and risk appetite.

Positioning signals are less dramatic but improving. The Coinbase BTC discount has narrowed from around 20bps to about 9bps, suggesting reduced U. S.-led spot selling pressure, though sentiment remains fragile with Fear & Greed still in extreme fear at 9. BTC/ETH is steady at 33 to 34, implying limited rotation, and while implied volatility has come off the highs, it remains elevated, keeping realised volatility firm into the macro-heavy week ahead.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/crypto-rebounds-as-etf-inflows-return-but-macro-catalysts-still-loom/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

With Bitcoin hitting ~$67k, the market’s key questions are back in focus: is BTC still evolving into a long-term store of value, or trading as just another high-beta risk asset in global portfolios?

On MONEY FM 89.3’s Wealth Tracker, Hongbin Jeong spoke with QCP’s Head of Client Coverage, Elbert Iswara, about what is driving the volatility and what it means for investors.

Key takeaways:
• Macro conditions are setting direction, while crypto-specific flows and leverage amplify moves
• Correlation with equities tends to rise in risk-off regimes and fade as conditions stabilise
• Watch ETF flow persistence, derivatives positioning, and spot depth around key levels

Read the full interview recap here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/recap-elbert-iswara-on-money-fms-wealth-tracker-bitcoins-identity-in-a-risk-off-world/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

QCP Market Colour, 4 February 2026

From Shutdown Relief to Deadline Risk

Crypto remains volatile. BTC dipped to ~72.9k, its lowest level since the post-election surge, before rebounding as the U. S. House passed a funding package, reducing near-term shutdown risk. Positioning de-risked into the move, with open interest compressing and funding flipping negative, and spot is now trying to stabilise back above 75k.

Macro stress has eased, but not disappeared. Homeland Security funding only runs through 13 February, keeping another deadline on the calendar, while oil has rebuilt a modest geopolitical premium that is still being capped by diplomacy headlines.

Options are still flashing caution. Front-end implied remains bid, term structure is flirting with mild backwardation, and downside skew has steepened, signalling the market is still paying for near-term gap risk. Tactically, 75k is the inflection point: hold and funding normalises, risk can be added; break and the tape can turn defensive quickly.

Read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 PM

We're proud to deepen our partnership with Talos as a strategic investor in their $45M Series B extension (bringing the round to $150M). Institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure is becoming foundational as capital markets move onto digital rails.

Big congrats to the Talos team on the milestone!

Read more: https://www.talos.com/insights/talos-extends-series-b-to-150m-in-strategic-fundraise?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=owned-social&utm_term=adb00a99-88f2-4680-9dff-6803c983442b&utm_content=&utm_campaign=general

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 25, 2026, 09:33 PM

QCP Asia Colour - 2 February 2026

Kevin Warsh In as Crypto Washes Out

BTC broke below 80k over the weekend after confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, triggering broad deleveraging across crypto markets. BTC briefly touched 74.5k while ETH fell below 2,170, with over $2.5b in leveraged long positions liquidated. Persistent ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment, marking BTC’s fourth consecutive red month.

Risk aversion has spread across assets, pressuring equities and extending to gold and silver as markets reassess the Fed outlook under Warsh. BTC is now stabilizing above 74.5k, a key technical level aligned with the 2025 cycle lows, while options skew remains defensive but less extreme than during prior sell-offs.

Key levels to watch remain 74k on the downside and 80k on the upside, with institutional flows and Fed communication likely to drive near-term direction.

Is BTC forming a base here, or is another flush still ahead? Read the full colour https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-184/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 24, 2026, 05:16 AM

QCP Asia Colour, 26 January 2026

Crypto Slips as Macro Fears Stack Up

Crypto started the week on the back foot after a quiet weekend, with early Asia selling triggering over $550m of long liquidations. BTC briefly tested 86k before stabilising, while ETH dipped toward 2,785. Meanwhile, gold and silver extended gains, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone.

Macro headlines are doing the heavy lifting: tariff rhetoric, U. S. fiscal brinkmanship, and fresh nerves around potential U. S.-Japan action to steady the yen. USD/JPY remains near two-month highs around 154, keeping positioning defensive as investors reduce short-yen exposure.

With government funding set to expire end-week, markets are also watching shutdown risk closely. Derivatives are already reflecting caution, with put skew and implied volatility firming and traders rolling downside protection in BTC.

For the full breakdown, including positioning, key options flows, and what we are watching into tech earnings and the Fed, read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-5/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 24, 2026, 05:16 AM

QCP Market Colour, 28 January 2026

From Funding Cliff to Skew

BTC has snapped back to the $88,000 handle, still a trap door level. Breaks below it have recently lined up with faster, liquidation-led air pockets, while quick reclaims have pulled price back into range.

Now the tape runs into a heavy US macro stack: the FOMC decision today (Jan 28), a Jan 30 funding deadline that keeps shutdown risk live, and renewed Senate scheduling on crypto market-structure, all while FX stays jumpy after the USD/JPY rate-check reminder of how quickly crowded positioning can unwind.

Options reflect that asymmetry. Vol remains contained and the curve stays in contango, so the base case is still chop, not crash. But the left tail is bid: skew remains negative and near-dated wings are rich, which reads like gap-risk hedging, not a smooth vol uptrend. “Low vol” alone is not a clean green light to sell.

On fiscal risk, the key question is how cleanly Washington clears Jan 30. A timely stopgap should compress near-term risk premia and let crypto trade more like straight beta. A brief lapse likely means a wobble that retraces once a deal lands. A prolonged standoff is the scenario that tightens liquidity and forces broader de-risking.

The nearer hinge is the Fed. Base case is unchanged rates, with focus on when cuts resume. Inflation remains above 2% even as jobs soften, keeping the Committee cautious and data-dependent. With independence under scrutiny, expect an independence defence and a familiar wait-for-more-data script, with scope for a USD bounce and a near-term risk wobble on a hawkish hold.

Read the full note on our website: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-28-january-2026/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 18, 2026, 07:38 PM

QCP Group has attained the Cyber Trust Advocate certification under the CSA’s SG Cyber Safe Programme, a risk-based cybersecurity mark designed for organisations with more extensive digital operations.

For our partners in financial services, trust is foundational. This milestone reflects our continued work to strengthen our security posture and operational resilience, so clients and counterparties can engage with QCP with greater confidence as we scale.

🔗 Read the full announcement: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-attains-csa-cyber-trust-mark-advocate-under-the-sg-cyber-safe-programme/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 16, 2026, 07:31 PM

QCP Asia Colour, 21 January 2026

From Tokyo to Tariffs: Risk-Off Returns, Bitcoin Blinks

Within the span of a week, risk has slipped back off the table. A shock from Japan and renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed markets into defensive mode, with equities wobbling and global rates back in focus.

Japan sits at the center of this unease. The repricing in JGB yields is doing more than lifting domestic borrowing costs. It is forcing global investors to revisit a familiar transmission channel: when Japan’s rates move, cross-border duration positioning, funding assumptions, and risk premia tend to move with it. In a market already sensitive to policy error, Japan is back on the list of credible volatility catalysts.

Across the Atlantic, US–Europe tensions are escalating again. Tariff headlines and retaliation risk are returning to the foreground, raising the odds of a more confrontational trade backdrop. For markets, the question is not whether the rhetoric flares, but whether it hardens into policy that dents confidence and tightens financial conditions at the margin.

Crypto has not been spared. Bitcoin remains under pressure and is trading less like a hedge and more like a high-beta macro proxy, highly responsive to rates, geopolitics, and broader cross-asset volatility. Until clearer policy signals emerge, crypto is likely to stay reactive rather than directional.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-21-january-2026/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 15, 2026, 07:35 AM

2025 was two-speed. 2026 is about positioning for what comes next.

In 2025, Q3 saw broad expansion, then Q4 brought a leverage-driven drawdown. Even as price action swung, the institutional rails kept building. Stablecoin supply grew, tokenised RWAs expanded, and regulation continued to shape market structure.

QCP’s H2 2025 Crypto Market Review puts these moves in context for institutional decision-makers. It tracks H2 through stablecoins, RWAs, digital asset treasuries, and evolving regulation, and connects market structure, flows, and positioning to the key risks and catalysts shaping 2026.

Take our short survey to get complimentary access now. https://bit.ly/4pRLkC1

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 10, 2026, 05:37 PM

QCP Asia Colour, 14 January 2026

We're goin' up, up, up, it's our moment
You know together we're glowin'
Gonna be, gonna be golden
-KPOP Demon Hunters

Goldilocks still holds: US jobs look steady and inflation remains stable. Risk is back across the board, from equities and precious metals to the dollar and crypto.

Despite Venezuela and Iran headlines with US involvement, markets are staying calm. Oil has picked up a geopolitical premium, but the broader tape remains resilient.

Cynically, investors are reading this through a midterm lens: Trump is expected to chase market highs, leaning on liquidity and a more assertive US stance that supports US outperformance and a global risk-on tone.

Bitcoin has finally pushed through $95k after months of failed rallies. If metals keep catching a debasement bid, BTC’s relative value may pull flows back into digital assets.

Key risks linger, including the pending Supreme Court tariff decision and any further escalation in Venezuela or Iran. For now, price action suggests much is already priced. Absent a true shock, dips still look buyable.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-4/

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QCP Broadcast

Mar 9, 2026, 03:43 AM

QCP Asia Colour, 12 January 2026

A New Risk Premium, an Old BTC Pattern

Bitcoin, gold and silver rallied in early Asia as the US dollar sold off sharply. The move followed Powell’s comments that the Department of Justice’s subpoena of the Federal Reserve, alongside Friday’s threats of potential criminal charges, were being read by markets as retaliation linked to the Fed’s policy stance, rather than issues tied to his June testimony.

The immediate economic impact may be limited, but the signal is not. Any perceived erosion of central bank independence risks undermining institutional credibility, a narrative that has historically been enough to drive rotation into alternative stores of value.

Gold and silver behaved accordingly, extending already constructive momentum. BTC joined the initial bid but failed to follow through, rejecting 92k and retracing into the European open, consistent with the familiar Q4 pattern.

Derivatives flows also point to bullish timing being pushed out rather than reinforced. Last week saw partial reductions in long-dated call exposure, alongside rolls into later, higher strikes.

US-hours selling remains a feature and uncertainty around the remaining supply overhang continues to cap upside. With macro volatility rising, crypto’s relative appeal looks increasingly challenged against the resilience of precious metals and equities.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on US CPI (Tue, 13 Jan) and the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling (Wed, 14 Jan), both likely to shape cross-asset positioning and risk sentiment.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-asia-colour-3/

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