📊 Market Update 📊
Hey all,
https://t.me/CryptoData2017 here 👋
Despite Trump extending his attack deadline to April 6th, the market still dumped. The S&P 500 dropped to a seven-month low, putting it on track for its fifth straight losing week, the longest streak since 2022. We also had oil settling at its highest level since the war began, with Brett closing at $112.57. At this point, only if the Iranians say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise. Israel's defense minister also said attacks on Iran "will escalate and expand" while Iran turned back two China-owned container vessels from Hormuz, expanding the blockade beyond US and Israeli-linked shipping.
Key News Events
- Iran threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea gateway that handles 12% of global seaborne oil. If executed, this would shut down a second major global oil chokepoint on top of the already-closed Hormuz. That's potentially 32% of the world's oil transit capacity under Iranian threat.
- The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give Trump more military options, per the Wall Street Journal. This goes well beyond the 82nd Airborne deployment announced earlier in the week and would represent the largest US troop buildup in the region since the war began.
- Russia bans gasoline exports starting April 1st.
Upcoming Events
- Apr 6th - Trump's extended deadline for Iran energy strikes. New binary event.
- TBD - Mar CPI (mid-April, will reflect the oil shock). Pentagon troop deployment decisions.
- TBD - Senate CLARITY Act markup. Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb reopening timeline.
Summary ✍️
The market viewed Trump's 10-day extension as a delay, not a relief. The fact that oil rose to $112 on the same day the deadline was extended proves that the market has stopped believing the diplomatic narrative. Iran turning back Chinese vessels is also a major escalation because China was one of the few countries still getting ships through. If Iran is willing to antagonize Beijing, they're not preparing to negotiate. The threat to close Bab el-Mandeb on top of Hormuz would be an unprecedented dual-chokepoint blockade that the oil market is not remotely priced for. The reversal of the safe-haven rotation back into gold and out of BTC is concerning for the short-term thesis. We had ETF outflows resuming after a month of inflows suggesting institutional conviction is cracking under the weight of yet another escalation cycle. The April 6th deadline is now the only date that matters, but unlike last Friday's deadline which generated hope, this one feels like the market has already priced in the extension pattern of escalate, threaten, extend, repeat. Be careful with leverage heading into the weekend. Oil is at war highs, equities are in correction, and BTC just lost 70k support, so manage risk accordingly and protect your capital.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC continued lower after rejected from its 50D EMA but did close nicely above major support at 66k. Its StochRSI is oversold with lower timeframes showing the same. As long as we can hold above 66k, I remain tentatively bullish, but we are heading into the weekend which is historically volatile. If we close below 66k on the Daily, I'd expect 63k at the very least. Otherwise, I'm watching for a bounce to 68k. Major support remains 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 68k, 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH is playing out exactly the same as BTC (rejected off of its 50D EMA while its StochRSI is now oversold). It's trying to get back above 2000 but did close below it, which means I'm waiting until at least 1940 before I consider a long. Otherwise, I'd wait for a close above 2000 to target 2100 next. Major support remains 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2000, 2100, 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
