Trading logs - Salsatekila

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Updated: May 25, 2026 at 11:03 PM

Trading logs - Salsatekila

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Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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3,690

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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I'm sick of losing money trying to trade lower timeframes, so I made myself a checklist. This should filter out pretty much all the shitty trades I tend to take. Might be a while before the next one, but at least the path forward is clear.

3,650

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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For your reference, this is the only support zone I have for BTC. I've stacked enough to be comfortable if we go higher, but not so much that I'd be screwed if we revisit and possibly fence underneath. This kind of support is something I use for monthly biases, and it must be used on a closing basis, meaning wicks underneath are not relevant unless a month closes below. The best longs are typically when price wicks under and closes back at the inner edge.

3,500

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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BTC has shown impressive resilience while stocks and gold crashed throughout Friday.

It looks like a decoupling has taken place: it went higher while the rest was getting nuked.

This is exactly the kind of price action I want to see to remain bullish on this dip.

3,040

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

A lot of noise around geopolitics and headlines. The key point is energy prices, which is mainly tied to whether or not ships sail in the Strait of Hormuz. If we zoom out, BTC is the only asset that is up since the beginning of the conflict. As long as 65-66k holds, my plan is to simply stack as much bitcoin as possible. I think it's quite obvious that bitcoin is having a hard time finding new sellers compared to gold and stocks, perhaps due to overextended selling. This doesn't mean it will be an easy ride up, but it means that current prices are most likely great to accumulate long-term holdings.

3,160

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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BTC update: Today marks the first time I've noticed a hint of the emergence of a bullish trend on BTC. Not only did people get complacent multiple days in a row on the short side, with about 10K worth of what looked like mainly short-dominant aggressive positioning on Monday, Feb 23, followed by a slow squeeze during the Western session that day, but the market was then driven down, pushed by even more aggressive short positioning OI (about 15K BTC worth) by the daily close on Tuesday. What followed was a violent short squeeze on Wednesday, which took prices as high as $66K (see red line). What's interesting is that whatever happened after that squeeze was purely a spot-demand-driven follow-up. Not only did people get complacent by leverage shorting the bottom, which is the complete opposite of what we had seen at $120K BTC, but after they got squeezed, the market did not show weakness and even picked up a strong spot bid that took us multiple thousands of dollars higher in a short time span. I think this is the emergence of a potential bullish trend. I am disabling my sell button from here onwards. It appears that buyers stepped in as BTC had reached  levels.

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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Referring to the Strait of Hormuz closure and general escalations. When the conflict started over the weekend, BTC was trading around 64.5k (first attack on Iran). So objectively it's up on bad news for several days. That being said, BTC price movements are erratic and unpredictable. It dipped deeper than I'd imagine on Monday, although it pumped higher erratically as well. My theory as to current behavior is that some rich individuals find BTC properties attractive for the screenshot-mentioned reasons. The geopolitical tension currency flight narrative (digital gold, better gold) would only truly kick in on a break above 70k. So I'd argue for a bullish scenario, we're still chopping between 65k-70k but the probability of resolving higher rather than lower is higher (65/35 perhaps). My strategy is simple: I deploy as much capital in the 60ks as possible to accumulate spot BTC, and try not to take the short side on my trades.

3,800

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

My high time-frame view is that BTC's historically strongest support stands around 60K. This is on a monthly basis, which implies that a broad range around that level is reasonable. It could dip into the 50Ks and that wouldn't invalidate said support. It would need to stay there for a month or two before I'd start worrying.

The short term is not something I have a strong read on. I think we had a big bounce off the early February liquidations, partially fuelled by Saylor's recent 44,000+ BTC buys.

I'm holding my spot BTC and keeping some USDT on the side going forward, ready to buy more if we revisit the lows.

2,880

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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My 2 cents on quantum: TL;DR, it’ll be fixed in time.

4,530

Trading logs - Salsatekila

May 18, 2026, 04:17 AM

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I've just been going all-in on BTC and buying more as close to $60K as possible (average $66K in this range currently). I think the $70K resistance will fall sooner or later, and a trend will re-emerge. Even ETH has not really been driven down, despite a lot of nasty news, including in the past 24 hours: BlackRock's ETF keeping part of the yield, Peter Thiel exiting ETHZilla. When bad news starts to exhaust itself, a bottom is typically near. If nothing will push it down, it will more likely resolve upwards. That's the stance I take. People are worried about quantum threats and Saylor, but those are non-risks for the next two years. Furthermore, those fears have triggered proposals and renewed the developers' resolve to find, suggest, and implement fixes for future quantum threats, of which we have recently seen some positive developments (including BIP-360). So, this creates a tailwind. The reality is that someone likely blew up and was forced to sell their BTC on February 5, which drove us as low as $59K, and we haven't had another downward push since. I think whoever had to sell has already sold. It's a once-in-a-cycle type of opportunity.

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

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2,380

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

The war FUD had been a known risk for about a month. There was simply uncertainty about whether there would actually be a military conflict or not.

Not only did it happen, but the US got directly involved.

I’d have expected the market to push further to the downside than it did, and certainly not to V-reverse so soon.

Many sidelined participants are watching this and debating whether to buy in or not. It still has room to go higher, and February should be a good month.

2,530

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

Seems like I was wrong, and I paid the price backwards.

I had longed BTC below 66k, took my losses after the Iran headline; unfortunately lower than I’d have liked (about 2k lower than entry).

I did not predict war involving the US. Potentially this could escalate, and it’s not my strong suit to trade geopolitical events. But I was told if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it would be the oh shit moment.

So for now I keep a bit of cash sidelined to buy after a potential Strait of Hormuz closure, and stay sidelined from longing with leverage until the market shows me some hints of strength again.

2,390

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

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It looks like I was pretty far off on my latest buys. As a result, my average DCA is now around $78k per BTC (started from $88k and bought all the way down, but I had very little ammo left by the time we hit the 60s).

The selling clearly came from an entity that was forced to liquidate under time pressure. That much is obvious from the 4-hour candles: zero meaningful relief bounces, and the pressure went on for almost two full consecutive days. Time will tell which entity got forced into this kind of dump; for now, we can only speculate.

My strategy hasn’t changed: keep stacking as much BTC as possible while we’re still trading at these depressed levels. The fundamentals remain rock solid; Bitcoin is digital gold and will eventually trade well above the previous ATH.

On the short-term trading side: I think we’re safe through the weekend and should favor dip buys below $70k. The real price action will likely start Monday onward. IBIT was the major volume driver during the sell-off, and it only resumes trading on Monday. Seeing spot buys come in on Friday tells me the worst is probably behind us.

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

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The last time the market extended down this much was June 2022, after 3AC collapsed. There was a strong bounce that lasted nearly two months afterward. We did end up going lower later, catalyzed by FTX’s collapse.

I would be surprised if we don’t at least bounce to 85k area.

3,900

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

I don't think there will be a second leg down.

FTX was shorting paper bitcoins with a non-liquidation clause. It overextended far beyond what would have been possible without Alameda's secret credit line, combined with gross incompetence and crime.

Bottom is in is the stance I tend to take here.

4,300

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 28, 2026, 07:22 AM

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There's some strong buy pressure coming through from just under 2025's BTC low. I think there's a decent likelihood that we're bottoming or near it. The 65K support area is obvious to most, and those often get front-run. I rebought my BTC in anticipation of a failed breakdown below 75K, and am looking to bid a select few coins such as PUMP. Taking a risk with 100% exposure here, which I'll re-evaluate if there is no follow-through on this uptick.

3,630

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 26, 2026, 09:24 AM

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On BTC at these levels, I think it makes no sense to be a bear. The Saylor FUD is irrelevant: he can't be liquidated and has proven he'll hold during previous bear markets. Furthermore, MicroStrategy's buying is reflexive on the upside; if prices increase in the future, they'll ramp up their buying with it. I see a strong support area around $65k, and we're already at the range low. I remain largely allocated to BTC (approx. 75%) with a bullish bias and a proclivity for buying dips intra-day, potentially going 100% spot BTC if we dip a bit lower.

3,140

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 23, 2026, 01:51 AM

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This #BitcoinOG(1011short) just deposited another 100,000 $ETH($242.7M) to #Binance.

https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/fbd33a7c-fccf-4182-9363-9361b2644d7f

2,830

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 23, 2026, 01:51 AM

some bybit tradfi campaign going on. If you trade those anyhow don't forget to claim your reward.

2,650

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 21, 2026, 12:22 AM

I pocketed the difference between 77k and 78.5k, and am keeping a 25% fraction in stablecoins for the time being. That’s because we did not reclaim 80k as fast as I expected, and Garrett Bullish has been sending ETH to Binance a few hours ago. I do think those prices are already cheap, and am looking to accumulate more BTC. That being said, the short term remains uncertain, so I keep 75% BTC / 25% stables with some bids in place lower, on a few coins of interest.

3,020

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 16, 2026, 11:53 PM

I closed my shorts around $88,888 on BTC. I think we’ve dipped enough from resistance that the potential reward no longer justifies the risk/exposure.

Today was filled with FUD: Saylor announced a $2B+ buy with a 95k+ fill, GameStop looks like it’s selling its $200M Bitcoin stack, and the stock market took a big hit on Trump’s warmongering rhetoric.

Overall, I think anything under 90k is solid value for long-term adds, but in the short term I’m staying unleveraged.

4,810

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 16, 2026, 11:53 PM

I deployed all of my remaining stablecoins around $77k per BTC. I think this move was mainly led by Garret Bullish getting liquidated for over $500M on ETH while cross-leveraged, which dragged everything down to an over-extension. I don’t see what kind of event can top this sell pressure on a Saturday (less liquid). If we can very soon reclaim $80k, that would be a good confirmation. I am front-running it into the daily close.

3,430

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 12, 2026, 12:27 PM

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2,890

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Mar 1, 2026, 10:29 PM

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96K is a critical pivot in my view: it marks the upper band of monthly resistance and aligns with a yearly pivot level. It looks like Saylor briefly pushed price slightly above it on Tuesday, supported by prints showing large Coinbase premiums throughout the day. I expect he’ll announce another acquisition soon; possibly today or Monday morning. With that in mind, now seems like a reasonable time to hedge BTC exposure and wait for the monthly close before reassessing.

5,390

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Feb 26, 2026, 01:13 AM

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Many may have missed this headline, but it seems important and makes me a lot more confident that $80,000 was likely a bottom for BTC. BlackRock has the biggest incentives to start the promotional machine and push BTC higher, since they collect fees on notional AUM. I expect we could trade above $100,000 by the end of the year, which would set up a bullish 2026. Don't lose hope now that sentiment is battered down with price; these are often the best dip-buying opportunities.

4,740

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Feb 18, 2026, 01:51 PM

I have been taking a hiatus from leverage in these more arid and difficult conditions. I think it's wise to step back from the gas pedal until BTC shows strength. It may take many weeks, and opportunities may decline in number. My strategy is to hold my BTC stack (currently 70% BTC / 30% stables) and deploy more stablecoins between 64k and 80k, if we haven't already bottomed. If Bitcoin can test 100k and close above 96.5k by the end of the year, it would be the greatest bullish setup I can foresee for 2026. Until then, I'm erring on the side of caution and enjoying the holidays with my family.

3,690

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Feb 18, 2026, 01:51 PM

latest update: https://x.com/twitter/status/1995330440362877342

View on X (Twitter)

3,950

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Feb 16, 2026, 01:56 AM

Not much to update, waiting on the month's end to evaluate what's my next move.

4,120

Trading logs - Salsatekila

Feb 9, 2026, 07:33 AM

BTC plan: buy the monthly support.

I’ve deployed almost all my stables and turned off the red button until December.

As long as this level doesn’t flip to resistance, this is the first proper monthly buy zone we’ve had in over a year.

Wouldn’t sleep on it.

5,120

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