The Kobeissi Letter

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Updated: May 26, 2026 at 9:56 PM

The Kobeissi Letter

@TheKobeissiLetter offers specialized information about Desi for subscribers interested in Desi

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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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It's like clockwork.

The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025.

This is the same level that resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.

Meanwhile, rate HIKES are now the base case for the Fed's expected next move.

As a result, average rate on 30Y mortgage in the US is nearing 7% and inflation is at a fresh 3-year high.

Seemingly overnight, "higher for longer" interest rate policy is back.

How long can this last?
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

BREAKING: President Trump says he will soon make a decision on Chinese companies that are buying Iranian oil.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

BREAKING: President Trump provides an update on his 48-hour visit to China for the US-China summit with 15+ US public company CEOs.

Details include:

1. Tariffs were NOT discussed with China's President Xi, Trump says they were "not brought up"

2. Trump says he made "no commitment either way" on Taiwan during talks with

3. Trump says he could meet with China's President Xi four times in 2026

4. Trump says China has not purchased Nvidia’s H200 chips, despite US approval for sales

5. Trump says he and President Xi discussed the possibility of easing US sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil

We expect further details shortly.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses to over -1.7%, now on track for the biggest daily decline since March 27th.

The market is growing concerned over the rapid surge of US treasury yields. https://t.co/SbiAeTmsZx
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, now up +19% since the March 30th bottom.

That's +$11 TRILLION in market cap in under 7 weeks. https://t.co/DC93OKuxpi
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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BREAKING: The 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, attracted a record +$1.03 billion in inflows on Tuesday.

At the same time, the 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, posted -$230 million in outflows, the largest daily outflow since late March.

Furthermore, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw +$161 million in inflows, the highest daily intake since March 31.

In other words, $SOXL inflows were more than 6 times larger than $TQQQ inflows, as investors concentrated their bullish bets in semiconductors.

$SOXL is now up +354% since the March 30th bottom, the largest 31-day increase since the fund launched in 2010.

This comes as the semiconductor sector, $SOX, is up +68% over the same period, the 3rd-best 31-day performance on record.

The run in semiconductor stocks is truly historic.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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Retail investors are piling into equities at a historic pace:

Cumulative retail equity inflows year-to-date are tracking above every comparable period over the last 7 years, except 2021.

After a brief pause in March, retail purchases surged in April to a level seen only 13% of the time in monthly data since 2019.

In the week ending May 1st, retail purchases ranked in the top 2% of all weekly inflows recorded since 2019.

At this pace, cumulative purchases by individual investors will exceed the 2021 record by as early as July.

Furthermore, the average daily volume of options traded by retail investors is up to 1.57x of January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 record.

Risk appetite among retail investors is accelerating.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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US oil reserves are falling at a record pace:

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped -8.6 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drawdown on record, per Zerohedge.

This marks the 7th consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since 2023.

Over this period, US oil reserves in the SPR have dropped -31 million barrels, to 384 million, the lowest since October 2024.

This wipes out nearly half of all the oil added to the SPR between July 2023 and March 2026.

Meanwhile, US crude oil exports jumped +742,000 barrels last week, to 5.5 million barrels per day, the 2nd-highest in at least 3 years, after a record 6.5 million barrels per day 2 weeks prior.

The world is scrambling for American oil.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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Silver’s outperformance of gold is gaining momentum:

The gold-to-silver ratio is down to 54, the 2nd-lowest since February 2023.

This ratio has fallen -9 points over the last 6 trading days, with silver outperforming gold for 6 consecutive sessions, the longest streak since December 2025.

Over this period, silver prices have surged +20%, to $87 per ounce, the highest since March 11th, while gold prices have increased just +3%, to $4,690 per ounce.

The ratio is now down -51 points, or -49%, since the April 2025 peak of 105 points.

By comparison, the ratio briefly touched 43 points, the lowest level in 15 years, in January 2026, after silver prices surpassed $120 per ounce for the first time in history.

Keep watching precious metals.
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The Kobeissi Letter

May 16, 2026, 02:55 AM

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BREAKING: The average price of ground beef in the US is now up to a record $6.90 per pound.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, ground beef prices have exceeded $7.00 per pound for the first time in history.

Prices have surged +77% since January 2020, when they stood at $3.89 per pound.

Furthermore, the average price of uncooked beef steaks is up to a record $13.02 per pound, surging +70% since January 2020.

Ground beef prices have now DOUBLED since 2013.

Food inflation is running hotter than ever.
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

BREAKING: President Trump says he will strike "every power plant and every bridge" in Iran if they do not make a deal by "Tuesday evening," per WSJ.
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

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BREAKING: President Trump appears to move the "48 hour deadline" on Iran back to Tuesday at 8 PM ET, 34 hours after the initial deadline. https://t.co/pv4cmkC4hR
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

BREAKING: President Trump says "there is a good chance [Iran makes a deal], but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," per Axios.

Details include:

1. Mediators are "less optimistic" that a deal is close but say they will work to the last minute to
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament responds to President Trump’s statement this morning:

“Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

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President Trump's Truth Social post about Iran this morning is so unprecedented, that even Grok is calling it a "meme-style image of a fabricated Trump post."

This post is entirely real, buckle up for an eventful week ahead. https://t.co/i1qjQywvlS
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

BREAKING: President Trump says he believes he can "get a deal with Iran" by Monday and that Iran is "negotiating now."

Trump also says he is considering "blowing everything up" and "taking Iranian oil" if Iran does not make a deal "fast."
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

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BREAKING: Navy SEAL Team 6 commandos extracted the ejected US F-15E pilot from Iran in a "massive operation" involving hundreds of special operations troops and military personnel, per NYT.

This marks the first confirmed US ground operation in the Iran War. https://t.co/s2NGl8BLYb
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

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BREAKING: President Trump tells Iran “open the f***** Strait of Hormuz, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”

Trump declares Tuesday as “power plant and bridge day.” https://t.co/OyGu44aleV
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

BREAKING: President Trump announces he will be having a news conference with the US Military at 1 PM ET tomorrow.

This is just 3 hours after his “48 hour warning” to Iran expires.

He also just declared Tuesday as “power plant and bridge day.”

We will be covering it real-time.
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 6, 2026, 02:08 PM

US stock market futures open in 9 hours.

Meanwhile, it has been a highly eventful 3-day weekend, one of the most eventful weekends of the Iran War yet.

President Trump has threatened to "reign hell" on Iran, declared Tuesday as "Power Plant and Bridge Day," and US forces
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Ministry responds after President Trump claims they asked for a ceasefire today:

"President Trump's claims that Iran requested a ceasefire are false and baseless."
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament on recent Iran War headlines:

"Out-of-context quotes + manufactured FOMO = War profiteering 101. Do your own research."
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

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BREAKING: Iran has struck Amazon, $AMZN, servers hosting Amazon Web Services in Bahrain. https://t.co/BMFC2ctfKB
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: President Trump is "strongly considering" withdrawing the US from NATO, per The Telegraph.

Details include:

1. Trump called NATO a "paper tiger" and said removing America from the defense treaty is now "beyond reconsideration"

2. The White House no longer regards
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: President Trump is sitting in the front row of the public gallery at the US Supreme Court as justices consider his order to end birthright citizenship.

Trump is now the first sitting president in history to attend a Supreme Court oral argument.
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

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The risk of FX intervention is rising in Japan:

The Yen has briefly weakened past 160 per US Dollar for the first time since July 2024, the spot where Japan’s Ministry of Finance last intervened in the currency market.

Since April 2025, the US Dollar has strengthened against https://t.co/gYSULwBL9a
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: President Trump will deliver an address to the nation on Wednesday at 9 PM ET to give “an important update on Iran."
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

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BREAKING: The US Financial Conditions Index is up to 99.17, the tightest financial conditions since June 2025.

The index has surged +0.77 points over the last 20 days, the fastest increase since March-April 2025.

This is also the 2nd-fastest pace of tightening since the 2022 https://t.co/raDWadajV2
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: Foreign central banks have sold their holdings of US Treasuries to their lowest level since 2012 in an effort to prop up their economies and currencies amid the Iran War, per FT.

Details include:

1. The value of Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed by
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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 2, 2026, 02:40 AM

BREAKING: The UAE is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, a move that would make it the first Gulf country to join the Iran War, per WSJ.
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