The Kobeissi Letter

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Updated: May 5, 2026 at 4:27 AM

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter is a growing community focused on Desi and related topics

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The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now up 400 points since its low less than 3 weeks ago, on October 27th.

That's a +10% move in just 11 trading days with today's CPI report sending the S&P 500 to 4500.

The Nasdaq is now up 13% from its October lows and just 6% away from a new all time high.

As of this morning, markets have shifted to expecting 4 interest rate CUTS in 2024.

Treasury yields are down sharply and widespread short covering continues in stocks.

Is the bull market back?

1,050

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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The median list price on US homes has declined for 4 consecutive months, according to Reventure.

However, even with these declines, prices are still only down ~6% from their all time high.

The median house in the US is now selling for a whopping $425,000.

All as mortgage rates just crossed above 8% for the first time in 23 years.

Housing affordability is still getting worse.

1,080

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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Housing market inventory has recovered slightly, but remains a major issue.

Currently, housing inventory is still 37% below the long-term average, according to Reventure.

In 2021, inventory levels fell as low as 70% below the historical average.

Even with inventory levels more than doubling from their lows, we are still at historically low levels.

All while mortgage demand just hit a fresh 29-year low.

A return in housing supply would send prices sharply lower.

554

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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Annualized interest expense on US debt is now at $1.027 trillion and is quickly rising.

Just 2 years ago, annual interest expense on US debt was at $450 billion.

That's a 128% jump in interest expense and we didn't even enter a recession yet.

Since 2020, total US debt is up ~$10 trillion and set to hit $35 trillion in 2024.

That's a ~45% jump in US debt and the Fed is still calling for a "soft landing."

Something is not adding up here.

724

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

BREAKING: October CPI inflation rate falls to 3.2%, below expectations of 3.3%.

Core CPI inflation fell to 4.0%, below expectations of 4.1%.

This is the 31st consecutive month with inflation above 3%.

But, inflation seems to be back on the DECLINE.

What does the Fed do now?

771

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

The U. S. Now Has:

1. Record $17.29 trillion in household debt

2. Record $12.14 trillion in mortgages

3. Record $1.60 trillion in auto loans

4. Record $1.08 trillion in credit card debt

Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006 peak and mortgage rates are nearly 1.5% higher than the 2008 peak.

Meanwhile, student loan payments just resumed for the first time since the pandemic with an average payment of $500/month.

This is all while new car loan rates are at a record 10% and credit card debt rates hit a record 25%.

What's the long-term plan here?

378

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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20% of US offices are vacant and WeWork's, $WE, bankruptcy is going to make this crisis worse.

WeWork just announced that they will be vacating 70 office leases in New York City.

But it gets worse.

WeWork has 600+ locations in major cities which are now under question.

Offices in NYC, San Francisco and Boston will be hit hardest.

Around 42% of WeWork’s occupancies are in those three cities.

They have already planned to close 1.9 million square feet of office building in those three cities.

The CRE crisis is worsening.

467

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

Key Events This Week:

October CPI Inflation data - Tuesday

October PPI Inflation data - Wednesday

Retail Sales data - Wednesday

Philly Fed Manufacturing data - Thursday

Building Permits data - Friday

Total of 14 Fed speaker events

Important week for inflation and the Fed.

564

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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Very interesting trend shift in the housing market:

Active listings on the US housing market jumped by nearly 36,000 in October 2023, according to Reventure.

This was the highest reported jump in October inventory levels in over 10 years.

Furthermore, October is historically known for sharp decreases in inventory.

A month which is historically tight for housing inventory just saw a historic jump.

All while mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time since 2000.

A trend worth watching.

389

The Kobeissi Letter

Apr 26, 2026, 05:36 PM

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JUST IN: Lawyers who won $1.8 billion lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors file new suit for anyone who has sold a home over the last 5 years.

The original lawsuit was filed in 2019 on behalf of 500,000 home sellers in Missouri.

Now, lawyers are saying that Americans have paid $60 BILLION in extra real estate commissions.

This lawsuit is quickly changing the way realtors are compensated.

It also comes at a particularly fragile time for the real estate market.

Tens of billions of Dollars in commissions are at stake.

360

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