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Updated: May 25, 2026 at 1:38 PM

Satoshi Tweeted

— Keeping a close eye on crypto news so you don't miss the next 2009 — Read by the Winklevoss twins and Musk, allegedly — 4E 6F 77 20 79 6F 75 20 6B 6E 6F 77 Contact: @sever_ar

@satoshi_e is a growing community focused on winklevoss and crypto and related topics

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Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Bernstein on quantum: Bitcoin has ~3–5 years to prepare

Quantum headlines are back, but Bernstein’s take is calm: this isn’t “Bitcoin ending” — it’s a manageable upgrade cycle that the industry has time to handle.

📌 Key points
— Prep window: roughly 3–5 years
— The threat is real in theory, but practical key-breaking machines are still years away: expensive, complex, and full of hurdles
— The fix would likely follow the usual path: dev proposals → community review → network consensus upgrades

🧩 Who is most exposed
Risk isn’t equal across the network:
— The biggest exposure sits in older wallets and addresses where the public key is already visible
— Using modern wallets and avoiding address reuse reduces risk significantly

⛏️ Mining isn’t the main issue
Bernstein notes Bitcoin mining (SHA-256) isn’t meaningfully vulnerable in the same direct way.

⚠️ The sensitive zone
— Legacy address types with more exposed keys
— Bernstein cites roughly 1.7M BTC sitting in early addresses with permanently exposed public keys (including an estimated ~1.1M BTC often attributed to Satoshi)

📌 Bottom line

Quantum risk isn’t a reason to panic today. It’s a reminder that Bitcoin will keep upgrading — and the most exposed coins are very old holdings and bad wallet hygiene. Watch the progress on post-quantum upgrades, not the scary headlines.

12,000

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Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 BTC reclaims $72K after a 2-week US–Iran ceasefire headline

Bitcoin pushed above $72,000 for the first time in ~20 days after headlines about a two-week pause in attacks between the US and Iran.

The move was quick: roughly +2.6% in an hour, reaching around ~$72,339.

The reaction makes sense: when war/oil pressure eases even a little, risk assets breathe. But this is not “the war is over” — it’s a two-week pause, so headlines can still swing the market fast.

Technically, it also fits: BTC recently bounced from ~$66.5K and kept printing higher short-term lows — price was compressing and waiting for a trigger.

Sentiment is still heavy though: fear remains in extreme fear territory.

📌 Bottom line

If the pause holds, BTC has room to test the $72K–$75K area more cleanly. But this market is headline-driven right now — watch level reactions, oil, and the tone of the next statements.

14,500

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 $471M into Bitcoin ETFs — strongest day since late February

US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in +$471M in a single day — the biggest inflow since Feb 25. BTC briefly pushed toward $70K but slipped back below $69K, so flows are improving while the market still feels edgy.

📊 Numbers that matter
— Daily inflow: +$471M
— Biggest inflows went to:
— IBIT: +$182M
— FBTC: +$147M
— ARKB: ~+$119M (its strongest day in a long while)
— Sentiment is still heavy: Fear & Greed = 13 (Extreme Fear)
— Total ETF assets are back above $90B

⚪️ ETH ETFs also saw inflows
Ethereum ETFs added +$120M — a small bounce after recent outflows, though ETH funds still look weaker overall than BTC funds.

📌 Bottom line

The setup is simple: people are still scared, but big money keeps buying through ETFs. If this repeats, it often helps BTC hold up better even in a choppy market. Watch the flows — they often show conviction before the chart does.

14,000

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Kiyosaki is back to “real money”: BTC + gold as “1974 comes full circle”

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki says the shift that started in 1974 is now hitting the real economy. His point is simple: debt keeps rising, inflation bites, and retirement risk is being pushed onto individuals.

📌 What he means
— After the gold-standard era ended, the system became more tied to energy and the dollar
— Retirement rules also shifted: many workers moved from “guaranteed income” to market accounts like 401(k)s
— Result: people may discover they don’t have stable income once they stop working

💰 What he recommends
— Focus on financial education
— Hold part of your savings in what he calls “real money”: Bitcoin, gold, silver
— And he repeats the same thesis: after a major downturn, scarce assets can rally hard

😈 The backdrop
Santiment shows bearish talk around BTC rising again: the bullish-to-bearish comment ratio dropped to 0.81. That kind of fear is often a contrarian ingredient.

📌 Bottom line

Kiyosaki isn’t a market timer — he’s a loud signal of how people feel about the system. When trust drops, demand for “hard” assets rises. Watch liquidity, debt, and crowd mood — that’s where moves usually begin. Stay ready.

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Until $76K becomes support, lower prices are still possible

BTC has been stuck in a $60K–$73K range for weeks. Buyers keep stepping in near $60K, but the market still doesn’t look ready for a clean trend shift.

📉 What looks weak
— Every bounce fades before price can hold the top of the range.
— Buying shows up mostly on dips, not on strength — so upside follow-through stays limited.
— Without a strong catalyst, price keeps chopping inside the box.

🧭 What would change the picture
BTC needs to push toward $76K and close above it for several days.
After that, the $75K area must hold as support.

If that doesn’t happen, $76K remains a ceiling and BTC can slide back down.

⚠️ If support near $60K breaks
The drop can accelerate. In that case, analysts point to:
— around $52.5K
— and the $57.5K–$56K zone as a possible stop along the way

📌 Bottom line

Keep it simple: $60K is key support, $70K is tough resistance, and $76K is the level that confirms a reversal. Watch where the daily candle closes — it matters more than quick spikes.

14,300

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Trump doubles down on Iran: oil back above $100, BTC slips

During Trump’s national address on the Iran war, the tape got a clean signal: risk up → oil up → BTC down. He said the US will hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next 2–3 weeks, and markets reacted instantly.

📊 Market reaction
— Oil jumped back above $100 (around $103.6)
— BTC dropped toward ~$66.9K, down about ~2% since the speech began
— The vibe: more escalation/uncertainty = higher energy risk premium and heavier pressure on risk assets

🧠 Why BTC moves like this
— Higher oil = higher inflation expectations
— Higher inflation = fewer odds of easier policy/rate cuts
— Tighter conditions = pressure on liquidity-driven assets (BTC first in line)

🌍 What Trump implied
— The operation is “close” to finishing, but strikes will intensify over the coming weeks
— Talks are “ongoing,” with hard demands on both sides
— On Hormuz: he claimed the blockade will “open naturally” because Iran needs oil revenue to rebuild

📌 Bottom line

Markets are trading headlines again: escalation → oil → volatility. For BTC, the key isn’t the rhetoric — it’s what happens to oil and rate expectations next. Keep alerts on energy and yields — that’s what’s steering the move right now.

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Fidelity: BTC drawdown is “less dramatic” this cycle — the market is maturing

Fidelity Digital Assets highlights a key shift: BTC’s peak-to-trough drawdown this cycle is around ~50%, far less than the ~80%–90% drawdowns seen historically. If this trend persists, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from extreme cycle volatility.

📊 Cycle numbers
— ATH ~$126K (Oct 6) → cycle low just above $60K (Feb 6): about −52%
— BTC is currently around −46% from the peak
— Last cycle comparison: $69K (2021) → ~$16K (Nov 2022): −77%

🧠 What it could mean
— “Diminishing returns”: each cycle becomes less extreme both up and down
— A shallower drawdown suggests reduced volatility and stronger institutional confidence
— Over time, this supports the thesis of BTC shifting from pure speculation toward a more stable store-of-value profile (still volatile, just less wild)

🗓 Bottom timing idea
One onchain timing framework based on post-halving patterns points to a potential bottom window in late September / early October 2026 — not a promise, but a historical reference band.

🧭 Technical context
— BTC remains below key daily trend MAs (50/200 EMA) → no confirmed trend reversal
— The key level being tested is the 200-week EMA near $68K, historically a major support in downturns

📌 Bottom line

If this cycle truly caps drawdowns near ~50%, that’s a strong maturity signal. But confirmation comes from reclaiming key moving averages and holding $68K as a base. Watch the 200-week EMA and how BTC behaves on risk headlines — that’s where maturity shows up.

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Oil above $105: does this trigger another BTC dump — or just a scary headline?

WTI just pushed above $105, the highest in nearly four years. That level has a reputation: in past episodes, BTC often saw −14% to −27% drawdowns within weeks. But the sample size is tiny — and each case had extra crypto-specific shocks in the background.

📊 What history shows ($105 WTI → BTC)
— 2014: oil >$105 amid Iraq escalation → BTC later dropped about −21% (not instantly)
— Mar 1, 2022: oil >$105 during Russia–Ukraine escalation → BTC −14% in 7 days, then rebounded within a month
— May 4, 2022: oil >$105 around the EU’s Russian oil embargo proposal → BTC −27% in 7 days, followed by a longer bear phase

🧠 Why the “correlation” may be misleading
— Only 3 events in 12 years — not enough to call it a rule
— Major crypto shocks (like Mt. Gox / Terra-Luna) likely amplified those bear markets more than oil did
— $105 is a clean number, but markets move through the chain: oil → inflation expectations → rates/real yields → liquidity → risk assets

⚠️ How to read it now
— If oil keeps rising and markets price a more hawkish Fed path, BTC can behave like a risk asset again
— There’s no automatic “$105 = crash.” Watch yields, the dollar, and flows (ETF + derivatives) for the real signal

📌 Bottom line

$105 oil isn’t a BTC death sentence — it’s a regime test. The real question is whether it turns into “bad inflation” and tighter conditions. Track oil, yields, and liquidity — that’s where the answer will show up.

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 $40K as the “final bottom” for BTC: models are turning harsh again

BTC bounced to ~$67.8K, but the bigger picture remains bearish. Several metrics and pricing models suggest the cycle low could still print below $50K — with the harshest target zone sitting around $39K–$41K.

📊 What’s weighing on price
— $69K–$70K flipped into resistance → until reclaimed, the “path of least resistance” points lower
— Losing $68K–$69K support confirms short-term bearish momentum
— Fear & Greed is still in extreme fear, and order books show a short-leaning bias

Level map

✅ For a reversal:
— reclaim and hold $69K–$70K quickly
— many want cleaner confirmation above $71K

⚠️ If it fails:
— first demand zone: $65K
— then the “bottom talk” zone: $46K–$54K (onchain model range)
— and the harsh scenario: $39K–$41K (historical retracements + bear flag breakdown)

🧠 What onchain models are implying
— STH cost basis (holders <155 days) has moved lower → the market is repricing where a bottom could form
— STH realized price bands are drifting down → some models allow a bottom around $50K or lower
— “Old school” models place a floor between $46K–$54K (realized price and CVDD)
— Historically, bear lows often land between 0.618 and 0.786 retracements → extreme zone near $39K

📌 Bottom line

Everything funnels into one test: $70K. While it stays overhead, this is still a relief bounce inside a bear market — and sub-$50K scenarios remain on the table. If another flush hits, the key won’t be the scary number — it’ll be how fast $65K gets defended and demand shows up. Track levels and react to confirmation.

Satoshi Tweeted

Apr 23, 2026, 12:43 PM

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🟠 Whales and sharks are quietly stacking: +61,568 BTC in a month

While headlines scream war, oil, and macro uncertainty, big wallets are doing what they do best: accumulating. Santiment data shows holders with 10–10,000 BTC added +61,568 BTC over the past month — classic quiet stacking during consolidation, while retail sentiment stays heavy.

📊 Wallet data
— Whales & sharks (10–10,000 BTC): +0.45% over the month
— Small holders (<0.01 BTC): +0.42%, about +213 BTC
— March also kept seeing exchange outflows, aligning more with accumulation than distribution

🧠 Why this pattern matters
Santiment highlights an old cycle mechanic:
— the ideal breakout setup is when large wallets accumulate while retail stays nervous / sells
— historically, that has often been a reliable backdrop for new bull phases

⚠️ Not all whales act the same
On March 19, two whales moved tens of millions to exchanges during a BTC dip and energy spike. Translation: some whales stack in the background, others wait for confirmation or position around volatility.

😈 Retail sentiment is still fear-heavy
— Fear & Greed sits in “extreme fear” around 13 (after 10 the day before)
Big money accumulates while emotions remain shaky — that combo is notable.

📌 Bottom line

In a range, the key question is who’s absorbing supply. Right now, the signs point to large wallets increasing exposure while sentiment hasn’t flipped yet. Not a guaranteed breakout — but it’s a familiar foundation for the next move if macro doesn’t break the setup. Watch whale behavior and key level reactions — that’s where impulses usually start.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 Saylor hits the gas again: Strategy lines up $44.1B to buy more BTC

Strategy just revealed $44.1B in capital-raising capacity aimed at continued Bitcoin accumulation. The key shift: they’re increasingly leaning on perpetual preferred stock structures to keep stacking BTC while reducing the need to constantly dilute common shareholders.

📊 How they plan to raise it
— Up to $21B via an ATM program selling MSTR common stock
— Up to $21B via “Stretch” STRC (high-yield perpetual preferred) via ATM
— Up to $2.1B via “Strike” STRK (another perpetual preferred)
— No fixed timeline: sales will happen “from time to time” into the open market

🧠 Why it matters
— This moves them from occasional big raises (convertible debt era) to a continuous drip-feed ATM engine
— Preferreds offer investors monthly dividends, while Strategy keeps buying BTC without endlessly issuing common shares
— They’re effectively packaging BTC exposure through their securities while BTC is still well below ATH

🔥 Accumulation numbers
— Latest buy: 1,031 BTC (~$76.6M)
— Earlier March buys: 17,994 BTC and 22,337 BTC (~$2.9B combined)
— Total stash: 762,099 BTC (~$54B)
— Added in 2026 so far: ~90,000 BTC in three months

📌 Bottom line

This isn’t a one-off bet anymore — it’s an accumulation machine. Strategy is building a capital conveyor belt to absorb supply during weakness. Watch the ATM pace and purchase cadence — that’s where you’ll see how hard the machine keeps pressing.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 BTC rebounds to $71K as oil dumps after a pause on Iran strikes

Bitcoin pushed back above $71,000 during Europe hours after news of a 5-day pause on strikes targeting Iran’s power/energy infrastructure. Markets instantly exhaled: oil crashed, and BTC erased the weekend drop in one sharp move.

📊 What happened
— BTC: ~+5% to $71K–$71.5K in about an hour
— Short liquidations: $270M in 1 hour (around $120M in BTC shorts)
— Total 24h liquidations: ~$781M
— Oil: down to ~$92 from ~$110 (WTI below $85) — one of the steepest daily drops in a while
— Gold and DXY whipsawed, but the main driver today was oil

🧠 Why it moved
Classic “risk-on” response to reduced tail risk: lower energy shock → softer inflation pressure → risk assets breathe again. But Iran quickly pushed back on the idea of “productive talks,” so volatility can snap right back if headlines flip.

🧭 Levels to watch
— CME gap near $70K is now filled
— Next liquidity zone: $72K–$75K — a close/hold above $72K can pull price toward the next cluster
— Downside fear zone remains $64K–$65K — still on traders’ radar

📌 Bottom line

The headline delivered fuel, shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off — BTC got a real window for continuation. Now it’s about whether price can hold above $72K and reach into $75K liquidity. Keep alerts on and watch oil — it’s steering the tape today.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 $70K tussle: the bottom may not be in — but a rebound setup is forming

BTC slipped back below $70,000, returning to its six-week range just days after tagging range highs above $76K. The optics aren’t great: derivatives are driving the move while spot demand cools. Still, lower time frames are printing a familiar setup that sparked a bounce in early March.

📊 What’s changing right now
— Perps are dominating: futures selling is heavier than spot
— Coinbase premium flipped negative → weaker follow-through from US-based buyers
— Spot vs perp CVD shows the selling pressure is coming from leverage
— Funding turned positive (~0.05%) → long bias building (longs paying shorts)
— Order books show bids defending around $70K — buyers are still holding the line

🧩 A fractal that could repeat
On lower time frames, price action resembles the Mar 6–8 correction:
— successive lower lows
— internal liquidity sweep
— seller exhaustion
— RSI bullish divergence developing (RSI holds while price makes a lower low)
— long liquidations flush leverage → open interest resets → a “cleaner” market

✅ If the bounce triggers
— A swift reclaim of $70K keeps the path open toward $76K
— $72K is the key pivot: reclaiming it can trigger a squeeze if shorts get trapped

⚠️ If support fails
— A breakdown below $68.3K shifts focus to $65K and $62K (higher-time-frame liquidity)
— If BTC fails to stabilize above the ~$73K base, buyer response looks weak → range lows become a real magnet again

📌 Bottom line

$70K is the battlefield: spot is quiet, derivatives are pushing, which keeps “bottom not in” on the table. But the rebound fractal is forming — the market just needs confirmation. Reclaim $70K and $72K → recovery play. Lose $68.3K → $65K/$62K is back in focus. Keep levels mapped and react to confirmation.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 Kiyosaki: “the pin is near,” TradFi bubble pops — BTC to $750K. But there’s a catch

Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is back with a familiar script: a major TradFi “bubble burst,” then Bitcoin at $750,000 within a year of the crash. Sounds ultra-bullish — until you ask the only question that matters: what will life cost by then?

📊 His core targets
— BTC: $750K
— Gold: $35,000/oz
— Thesis: money supply expansion drives “scarce assets” higher

🧠 Why this isn’t automatically bullish
— If housing, food, and energy surge alongside asset prices, $750K can mean “rich” in nominal terms but not in purchasing power
— His own framing implies gold leads: a BTC/gold ratio near ~21.5 — not exactly peak “BTC dominance” territory
— Even a huge BTC price doesn’t guarantee it becomes a top global asset if everything else gets repriced too

⚠️ Context markets remember
— Kiyosaki has a long track record of calling imminent crashes, with timing often missing reality
— The narrative can be useful (fear → liquidity → scarce assets), but it’s not a reliable trade plan

📌 Bottom line

$750K is a headline. The real question is purchasing power — and whether the cycle crowns BTC or gold as the main winner. Track metrics over prophecies: liquidity, rates, demand, flows, cost of living. Stay sharp and keep your head cold.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 BTC stalls at $76K: the levels that matter ahead of FOMC

Bitcoin is trading around $74,000, slightly below the six-week high at $76,000. Traders are bracing for volatility after the Fed decision — and especially Powell’s tone: rates are almost certainly unchanged, but guidance can move the market fast.

📊 What the market is pricing
— “No rate change” odds are effectively 100%
— The decision itself is largely priced in
— The real catalyst is Powell’s tone (hawkish vs dovish) + geopolitics/oil/inflation

🧭 Key BTC levels
— Hold the 50-day SMA ~ $71,120 as support
— Break $76,000 and flip it into support
— That opens $80K+, with the next reference near 200-day SMA ~ $87,411

⚠️ Bear case
— Rejection at $76K → back into the $72K–$65K range
— Below $65K, next zone: $62.5K–$60K (wipes the post–early-Feb gains)
— Closes below major MAs raise bull-trap risk

💸 ETF support
— Spot BTC ETF demand remains firm: $199M in a day and 7 straight days of positive netflows
If flows keep absorbing supply, support can hold even through a choppy FOMC.

📌 Bottom line

Rates aren’t the headline — Powell’s tone is. For BTC it’s simple: $76K is the flip trigger, $71K–$65K is the stress-test zone. Keep the levels mapped and react to confirmation.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 ETFs keep stacking inflows: 6 straight days — risk appetite is waking up

US spot Bitcoin ETFs just printed a 6-day inflow streak, the longest since October. Over the same window, BTC is up ~12%, which often means one thing: capital returns before sentiment feels “safe.”

📊 Flow snapshot
— Day: +$199.4M net inflow
— Leaders: IBIT +$139.4M, FBTC +$64.5M
— Small positives: BITB +$2.8M, EZBC +$2.1M
— Outflows: VanEck −$6.3M, ARKB −$3.1M
— Since Mar 9: +$962.8M total
— BTC move: $65,960 → $74,250 (+12.5%)

🌍 Macro is still shaky
US–Iran uncertainty and oil volatility are still in play. Yet BTC pushed into a six-week high zone, helped by rumors of progress on the geopolitical front.

🧠 Crowd behavior is shifting
— Santiment says FOMO is at its strongest since early January
— Fear & Greed climbed to 28, escaping Extreme Fear for the first time since late January
Not euphoria — but fear is thawing.

📌 Bottom line

Six green flow days isn’t a guarantee of continuation, but it’s a strong tell: institutional demand is active again. As long as ETFs keep absorbing supply, dips tend to get bought faster and momentum stays supported. Keep alerts on and track flows — they often speak before the chart.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 BTC hits a 6-week high: $74.4K, $300M shorts wiped

Bitcoin caught fresh strength in Asia hours and printed a six-week high at $74,400. It’s a textbook relief bounce, but with real fuel: open interest is rising, meaning leverage is building again.

📊 Key stats
— BTC: +2.5% on the day, high $74.4K (first time since Feb 4)
— Short liquidations: ~$300M in 24h
— Futures OI: +6% to $49.2B
— Alts joined: ETH ~+7%, XRP ~+5%, SOL ~+6%
— Total market cap: ~$2.49T (+4% daily)

🧭 The level that matters
— BTC reclaimed the 50-day SMA around $71,120
That’s the key support bulls must hold if this move is more than just a spike.

🔥 Why there may be more upside
— OI rising with price → fresh fuel is building
— Potential 8 straight green daily candles (rare setup)
— ETH breaking its range often hints BTC isn’t done yet
— Analysts’ magnet zone: $80K

📌 Bottom line

Bulls are in control, but confirmation comes from holding $71.1K as support. If that level stays defended, BTC has room to push toward $80K. Keep alerts on — the next leg can be fast.

12,200

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 Banks vs Bitcoin: BPI moves to fight Basel’s “toxic” treatment

The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) is gearing up to pressure the US Federal Reserve as it prepares rules on how US banks should implement Basel risk-weight guidance. The problem: under the current framework, Bitcoin is effectively treated as a “toxic asset.”

📊 What’s happening
— The Fed said it will soon publish a proposal for public comment on implementing the final phase of Basel in the US
— BPI plans to submit a public comment to push for a better treatment of BTC
— Under Basel’s current approach, Bitcoin carries a 1,250% risk weight

🧨 Why it matters
— A 1,250% risk weight forces banks to hold capital/collateral close to 1:1 against any BTC exposure
— That makes holding BTC more expensive for banks than most asset classes
— Meanwhile cash, government debt, and physical gold sit at 0% risk weight
— Net effect: banks avoid Bitcoin → fewer services for Bitcoin companies and users

⚠️ BPI’s core argument
— The current classification is a “category error”: Bitcoin is boxed into the most punitive bucket
— Instead of improving safety, it pushes infrastructure away from regulated rails and slows legitimate adoption

📌 Bottom line

This isn’t a “crypto debate” — it’s a regulatory switch that decides whether Bitcoin becomes a normal bank asset or stays “toxic on paper.” If the Fed adjusts the risk-weighting, it could be a quiet but massive institutional unlock. Watch the comments phase — these moves shift markets without candles.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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🟠 Buyers are “in control” — but the trend won’t flip until $78K breaks

BTC is up roughly +17% from sub-$60K lows, and derivatives data suggests demand is returning. But analysts are clear: the broader downtrend doesn’t officially end until Bitcoin reclaims $78,000 as support.

📊 What demand is showing
— Net taker volume is positive: aggressive buy pressure in derivatives is beating sell pressure
— That aligned with BTC recovering toward ~$74K → it’s not just shorts closing, buyers are stepping in
— The bull score index jumped (roughly ~10 to ~30), but the market is still in a bearish phase — this looks like a relief rally, not a full reversal
— ETFs are helping too: 3 straight inflow days totaling around +$529M

🧭 The key level: $78K
— BTC has been stuck in a $62K–$72K box for weeks, repeatedly failing to hold above $70K
— Zoomed out, price is trapped between:
— realized price/cost basis around $54K (major support)
— and the “true market mean” near $78K (a common relief-rally ceiling in bear phases)
— A clean break and hold above $78K–$80K could be the first real signal of a long-term trend shift

⚠️ If it fails again, watch
— $68.3K (200-week EMA)
— $60K–$65.5K demand zone
— $58.8K (200-week SMA) as the historical last line in macro drawdowns
— And the big cost-basis anchor: ~$54K

📌 Bottom line

Buyers are back — but it’s control inside a bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal. One checkpoint matters: turn $78K into support. Until then, stay disciplined, respect levels, and don’t buy the fairy tales. Stay ready — the next move can be violent.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 29, 2026, 07:51 AM

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Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 26, 2026, 07:09 PM

📷 Photo

🟠 Bitcoin vs gold: ETF flows hint at early capital rotation

After gold’s massive 2025 run, we’re seeing a familiar pattern: profit-taking in gold ETFs — while Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive again. It’s not a full switch yet, but the early rotation signals are getting louder.

📊 Flow snapshot
— The biggest US gold ETF, GLD, saw −$3B in a single day — the largest daily outflow in 2+ years
— That followed a −4.4% drop in gold (the sharpest since late January)
— Context matters: gold ETFs pulled +$18.7B in January and +$5.3B in February — a record start → taking profits is logical

🧲 Bitcoin ETFs moved the other way
— BTC ETF 30-day net flow flipped to +$273M (Mar 6) from −$1.9B (Feb 6)
— In native units, the divergence is even clearer:
— BTC ETFs: +4,021 BTC (from −42,275 BTC)
— Gold ETFs: holdings in ounces dropped over the same window
Native units matter: they show real accumulation/distribution without price distortion.

🧠 Why this could be a leadership shift
— Historically, gold and BTC often take turns outperforming
— After gold led hard in 2025, a phase where Bitcoin retakes leadership wouldn’t be surprising, especially if risk sentiment improves
— Both can benefit from deficits, trade tension, and geopolitics — the key is who becomes the leader now

📌 Bottom line
This looks like the classic setup: gold cools after overheating, while Bitcoin starts rebuilding demand via ETF flows. It’s early — but rotations usually start exactly like this. Track flows and balances, not headlines — when capital moves first, price follows.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 24, 2026, 07:08 PM

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🟠 A 1,000,000-qubit quantum facility: “Bitcoin can be broken” fears are back

PsiQuantum has started building a 1M-qubit quantum computing facility — a number that sounds like “enough to crack crypto” in theory. Naturally, the old narrative resurfaced fast: what if this finally threatens BTC security?

📊 What actually matters
— Quantum risk is not a tomorrow-morning event — it’s a multi-year race: big qubit counts ≠ a ready-to-use key-breaking machine
— Bitcoin devs have been discussing post-quantum defenses (including hard-fork-level options), so the topic is already on the network’s radar
— CoinShares estimates only ~10,230 BTC sits in a legitimately quantum-vulnerable posture — a size the market could absorb without “end of Bitcoin” drama

🧩 Who’s most exposed
The most vulnerable coins are tied to addresses where the public key has been revealed — especially older UTXO-era wallets and early-age holdings that have never been spent.

🛡 One more nuance
A PsiQuantum co-founder publicly said the company has no plans to attack Bitcoin, and it’s hard to “hide” something like that inside a large, real-world operation. Still, markets will use the quantum angle as a volatility narrative whenever it’s convenient.

📌 Bottom line
Quantum FUD comes in waves — almost always years ahead of real danger. The real signal won’t be headlines; it’ll be how fast Bitcoin moves toward quantum-resistant upgrades. Stay calm, track the updates, and stay ready — preparation beats panic. Don’t miss the next move.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 24, 2026, 07:08 PM

📷 Photo

🟠 Bitcoin mining in space: Starcloud plans to run ASICs from orbit this year

While Earth-based miners get squeezed by margins and power costs, Starcloud — an Nvidia-backed orbital data center startup — says it will start mining Bitcoin from space once its second spacecraft launches later this year.

📊 Why they think it works
— The bet is ASICs, not GPUs: they claim GPUs are ~30x more expensive per watt/kW than specialized mining chips
— If you’re building compute in orbit, mining is one of the most predictable “plug-and-monetize” use cases
— Power is largely solar, which fits the “stop buying energy, start harvesting it” story

🚀 The big claim
Starcloud’s CEO frames it as an endgame: Bitcoin mining uses ~20 GW continuously, so “in the final state” it makes more sense to move it off Earth. Wild? Yes. But markets love this blend of AI + energy + infrastructure narratives.

📉 Mining context
— Profitability has been pressured with BTC down roughly ~48% from the October peak
— A small relief: mining difficulty is down about ~7% from record levels, giving miners some breathing room

📌 Bottom line

“Mining BTC in space” is still more narrative + real-world testing than an instant revolution. But if they can actually keep ASICs running reliably in orbit, it opens a new battlefield for energy and hashpower. Watch the launch — some trends start exactly like this. Don’t miss it.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 24, 2026, 07:08 PM

📷 Photo

🟠 ETFs are fueling the bounce: +$462M inflows, BTC briefly above $73K

US spot Bitcoin ETFs keep pulling cash while sentiment is still shaky. Wednesday brought +$462M in net inflows — three green days in a row, pushing the weekly total to $1.1B. BTC briefly popped above $73,000 on the back of that demand.

📊 Flow snapshot
— Day: +$462M (3-day inflow streak)
— Week: $1.1B
— YTD: roughly +$700M (after a brutal -$3.8B, five-week outflow stretch)
— Leader: IBIT +$307M
— Next: FBTC +$48M, Grayscale Mini (BTC) +$32M

🧩 Broad participation
It was a rare session where almost every US spot BTC ETF saw inflows (only one posted flat/zero). Analysts note most funds have flipped net positive YTD, with losses concentrated in just a few holdouts.

⚠️ Sentiment is still “extreme fear”
Fear & Greed ticked up, but it’s still stuck in extreme fear. Translation: money is coming back before the crowd feels safe.

📌 Bottom line
ETF flows look like an early tell: capital is willing to buy risk again, even while emotions lag. If inflows keep stacking, $73K won’t be a ceiling — it’ll be a doorway. Stay sharp and keep alerts on — the next leg can move fast. Don’t miss it.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 23, 2026, 11:55 AM

📷 Photo

🟠 Death cross is back: late-cycle fears return

BTC has printed a fresh death cross on the 3-day chart — the first one since June 2022. Traders are watching downside risk closely, since historically these crossovers often came with another leg lower.

📊 Key takeaways
— Death cross = the 50-period MA crossing below the 200-period MA
— Past cycles showed average reactions of ~−35% over 1 month, ~−20% over 3 months, ~+30% over 12 months
— In 2022, a similar signal preceded a deep drop with BTC bottoming near $15,480
— From the last ATH (~$126K), BTC has already pulled back hard, and some call this the “most brutal” bear-market zone
— A widely discussed potential bottom range: $30K–$45K

💸 The twist: ETFs are still buying
Even with volatility and geopolitical stress, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a strong inflow day (around +$458M). That’s a clear sign dip-buying is active, even while TA looks bearish.

🌍 Macro trigger
Middle East escalation adds pressure via energy and shipping risks. But there’s also the opposite angle: prolonged stress can push markets toward pricing easier money, which has historically supported risk assets and BTC.

📌 Bottom line
A death cross isn’t destiny — it’s a warning. Short-term can stay rough, but ETF inflows suggest big money hasn’t switched off the buy button. Stay sharp, track the levels, and be ready — the best entries show up when fear is loud. Don’t miss it.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 23, 2026, 11:55 AM

📷 Photo

🟠 BTC pushes toward $72K: bulls step in during Asia session

Bitcoin cleared $71,000 and printed a near one-month high while geopolitics kept volatility elevated. This doesn’t look like a random wick — it’s shaping up as a range-break attempt after BTC failed to hold above $70K since January.

📊 What’s happening
— Around +5% on the day
— Price reclaimed key psychological levels and is testing a long-term trend line
— Traders are talking about the end of a large accumulation phase: either a clean breakout, or a deviation that flips into a bearish reversal
— A potential support flip is in play: break the descending trend line → hold above it as support

🌍 Macro backdrop: oil + Hormuz
— Markets are glued to oil, inflation expectations, and shipping risk
— Energy is the input that feeds industry (and the AI supply chain), so disruptions reprice risk fast
— BTC strength during this stress may be an early tell: risk appetite could be turning back on

📌 Bottom line
This is decision time: a firm hold above the 69–70K zone can unlock momentum and wake up alts. But if this breakout fades, volatility will bite again. Keep alerts on and stay ready — the move can start instantly. Don’t miss it.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 20, 2026, 01:07 AM

📷 Photo

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Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 19, 2026, 09:10 AM

📷 Photo

🟠 “This is not World War Three”: BTC holds, but $45K still in play

Bitcoin survived the Iran flare-up without a full-blown sell-off. Local low near ~$63K, followed by a bounce. Yet bearish macro targets remain intact.

📊 Short term:
— ~$300M in long liquidations — painful but contained.
— Support held in the $61–63K zone; traders eye longs around $60–62K.
— Risk of a $74K bull trap before another leg down.

📉 Longer term:
— 2022 patterns resurface: rising open interest while price falls — shorts building.
— Filbfilb’s trendline points to $40–45K if weekly closes lose the key band.
— $45K gaining traction as a macro bottom target.

🌍 Macro focus — Iran & oil:
— WTI +7% on headlines; markets on edge.
— Full Strait of Hormuz closure = oil >$100, US CPI near 5%.
— Many analysts insist: “This is not World War Three.”

💰 ETFs flip constructive:
— 3 straight days of >$1B inflows last week.
— First “meaningful” accumulation since October.
— Historically, rising ETF demand supports price.

Markets are in limbo: geopolitics pressures, but no capitulation yet. If inflation stays contained — BTC stabilizes. If oil spikes — $50K–45K comes back into focus.

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 17, 2026, 09:27 AM

📷 Photo

🟠 100 BTC club nears 20,000 wallets: a bullish distribution signal?

The number of wallets holding ≥100 BTC is approaching 20,000. Currently at 19,993 addresses, each worth roughly $6.71M at current prices. Santiment expects the milestone to be reached soon.

📊 What it means:
— More 100+ BTC wallets = less extreme top consolidation.
— Reduced risk of a small whale group dominating price swings.
— After a −47% drop from $126K to ~$67K, large holders accumulating can be a bullish sign.

⚠️ The nuance:
— The overall supply share of this cohort hasn’t changed much.
— New wallets are hitting 100 BTC while some long-term holders are selling.
— That’s why price remains suppressed.

💬 Context:
— Will Clemente suggests OG holders may be done selling aggressively.
— Michaël van de Poppe says BTC needs to form a higher low to resume the uptrend.

Distribution is improving, but supply pressure isn’t gone.
If 20K wallets is breached, it could mark the next accumulation phase.

10,600

Satoshi Tweeted

Mar 17, 2026, 09:27 AM

📷 Photo

🟠 Bitcoin above $69.5K: ETF inflows return, risk appetite rebounds

BTC pushed past $69,500 as US equities turned green on policy clarity and strong earnings. With risk appetite back, is $70K next?

📊 What fueled the move:
— Spot ETFs saw $257.7M in inflows, ending five straight weeks of $3.8B in outflows.
— Fidelity added ~$83M, BlackRock’s IBIT nearly $79M.
— Coinbase Premium and rising CVD signal strong spot demand.

⚙️ Derivatives show no overheating:
— Open interest stabilized around 235K BTC (down from >240K).
— Funding remains slightly negative (−0.0037%) — shorts are paying longs.
— The rally is driven by spot, not aggressive leverage buildup.

💡 Context:
— Trump’s address highlighted falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over late 2025.
— Positive dealer gamma may smooth volatility and slow sharp breakouts.
— Strong bids absorbed selling at $60–63K; BTC is now ~8% higher from that zone.

Leverage has been flushed, and spot buyers are stepping in. If sell pressure stays muted, $70K becomes the logical next target.

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