$TAO analysis: Below key resistance after 100%+ rally: Many of you asked, let's look: 📊
In the recent period, $TAO has shown a particularly strong movement, and it cannot be ignored that since the beginning of the Iran–Israel conflict, we have seen a price increase of more than 100%. 🚀
The exact reason for this cannot be attributed to a single factor, but there are several logical explanations behind it:
On the one hand, the #AI narrative remains one of the strongest in the market, and on the other hand, during times of geopolitical tensions, capital often seeks alternative, fast-growth stories, and AI tokens receive special attention in this environment.
Current structure: 🕯
➖From a technical perspective, we see a very clean structure. Above, a descending trendline (green band) stretches, which has been determining the market movement for a long time. 📉
➖It is important to note that although there were impulsive breakouts earlier (marked in blue), the real, regular trendline remains this green zone, and so far every significant rise has been caught by it... just like now. 📌
➖Below, a strong support level lasting since the summer of 2024 is visible ($150 – $170 zone), which has caught the price multiple times. Every major bounce started from here, including the current rally. 📈
📊 RSI – Overbought condition: The RSI is currently moving in the overbought zone, which is completely logical after such a 100%+ rise. In the short term, this indicates that ➡️ a small correction is almost inevitable.
However, this correction is not negative but completely healthy. A 10–15% pullback after such a rally is practically negligible and in many cases only provides new entry opportunities.
Scenarios:
➡️ Short term 📉
A smaller pullback is more likely due to the overbought RSI and the significant surge. This could be a quick, sharp downward movement, but structurally the picture can remain bullish.
➡️Long term 📈
If $TAO manages to break through the descending trendline (green zone), that would be a trend-reversal signal, and a much stronger upward impulse could start. In this case, I expect a rise to $550 in the first round, and then above $750. 🚀
➡️In the worst case, $TAO falls to the $150 support level, but the price has bounced back every time from here. 💱
We would be in big trouble if we fall below this level, because then it could fall to unpredictable depths, but I see about a 0.01% chance of that now 👀
My personal investment $TAO:📈
- For the long-term portfolio, I am currently buying only very cautiously, bit by bit.
- I plan to do the serious accumulation in the $200–210 zone, where a technically much more favorable risk/reward ratio can develop. ✔️
Overall, $TAO remains a very strong long-term project, especially due to the AI narrative, and I will also elaborate on it in more detail in the portfolio group soon. 😎
