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Updated: May 18, 2026 at 11:24 AM

Coingrams

@coingramspublic is a dedicated channel for Cryptocurrency with regular updates in Cryptocurrency

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

• AI-native startups winning enterprise deals

What proves this overdone:
• Salesforce Agentforce hits $2B ARR
• ServiceNow shows 30%+ AI renewal uplifts
• M&A validates private premiums

My take:

This is early-to-mid innings of a multi-year re-rating.

Not because the companies are bad.

But because the BUSINESS MODEL is being disrupted.

Seat-based pricing in an AI-agent world is like selling film in a digital camera world.

The math stops working.

The asymmetry here favors patience.

If I’m wrong and this is overdone → stocks recover over quarters

If I’m right and disruption accelerates → downside extends for YEARS

Risk/reward says: wait for the data.

Feb-March earnings will be the tell.

I’ll be covering this closely.

The SaaS re-rating is one of the most important sector stories of 2026.

The winners and losers of AI will be determined in the next 18 months.

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

$NVDA just posted a monster quarter, crushing both revenue and EPS estimates. Guidance was also very strong, with Q1 revenue projected well above expectations.

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

Nvidia, $NVDA, earnings:

- EPS: $1.62, est: $1.54
- Revenue: $68 billion, est: $66 billion

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

Software stocks just entered a bear market.

$SAP -17%
$NOW -12%
$WDAY -15%
$CRM at 52-week lows

But here’s the thing nobody’s saying out loud:

This isn’t 2022.

This is the beginning of SaaS’s Kodak moment.

🧵

I spent the last 48 hours digging through:

• Microsoft’s earnings call
• SAP’s backlog data
• Bain’s AI disruption research
• Historical sector re-ratings

What I found should terrify anyone long software.

Let me explain

Microsoft reported Tuesday night.

Beat revenue by $1B.
Beat EPS by 4%.

Stock tanked 12% — worst day since March 2020.

Why?

One chart tells the whole story:

Capex: +66% YoY ($37.5B in ONE quarter)
Azure growth: DOWN to 37%

They’re spending faster than they’re earning.

But that’s not even the scary part.

The scary part is WHY the market panicked.

Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss nailed it:

“Capex is growing faster than we expected, Azure is growing slower. That fundamentally comes down to concern on return on investment.”

Translation: The AI math isn’t mathing.

Wait — didn’t everyone say AI would SAVE software companies?

Yes. And that’s exactly the problem.

Here’s the dirty secret of SaaS economics:

Seat-based pricing requires MORE humans doing MORE work.

AI agents enable FEWER humans doing LESS work.

See the issue?

Don’t take my word for it.

Look at Klarna.

They replaced Salesforce AND Workday with Deel + AI.

Results:
• Employees: 5,000 → 3,800 (targeting 2,000)
• Revenue per employee: $400K → $700K
• SaaS apps: 1,200 → consolidated “knowledge stack”

This is the playbook. Other CFOs are watching.

BCG surveyed IT buyers.

40% said their #1 lever to cut software spending is reducing seat counts.

Guess what AI agents do?

Reduce seat counts.

Gartner projects agentic AI could drive 30% of enterprise software revenue by 2035.

That’s $450 BILLION migrating away from legacy pricing.

Not all SaaS is equally screwed.

Here’s the disruption risk hierarchy:

🔴 HIGH RISK:
• Service management (ServiceNow)
• HR software (Workday)
• CRM (Salesforce)

🟡 MODERATE:
• Collaboration tools

🟢 LOWER RISK:
• ERP (SAP, Oracle) — switching costs protect them

But “lower risk” ≠ “no risk”

$NOW dropped 12% despite BEATING estimates.

Let me repeat: They beat. And got crushed.

KeyBanc downgraded to SELL.

Why? AI can resolve 60-80% of Tier 1 support tickets WITHOUT humans.

ServiceNow’s own GenAI cuts ticket volume 30%.

They’re selling the rope.

“But multiples are already compressed!”

Are they?

Current SaaS: 5-7x revenue

Great Recession troughs:
• Salesforce: 1.5x
• NetSuite: 1.4x

If AI disruption is structural (not cyclical), we could see 60-70% MORE downside from here.

That’s not a typo.

“This feels like 2022.”

It’s not.

2022:
• Driver: Rate shock
• Business model: Intact
• Recovery catalyst: Rate cuts

2026:
• Driver: Structural AI disruption
• Business model: Questioned
• Recovery catalyst: ???

This is fundamentally different.

-----

When new tech structurally re-rates a sector, it takes YEARS.

Cloud disrupting on-premise: 10 years
Internet disrupting retail: 15 years

During retail’s disruption:
• 53% more store closures than 2008 recession
• Survivors needed complete transformation

Sound familiar?

-----

What’s smart money doing?

• Druckenmiller: Exited Microsoft entirely
• Burry: Puts on $NVDA and $PLTR
• Thoma Bravo: “Incredible buying opportunities”
• Jane Street: +317% on ServiceNow position

Translation: Even the pros are confused.

That’s not bullish.

-----

One thing gives me pause:

ServiceNow options flow shows calls outpacing puts nearly 2:1.

Some big money is positioning for a bounce.

The question is whether it’s a dead cat or the start of differentiation between winners and losers.

-----

Three earnings will tell us everything:

Feb 24: Workday
Mar 4: Salesforce
Mar 12: Adobe

Key metrics:
• Net revenue retention (below 100% = trouble)
• AI pricing power
• Customer churn acceleration

These will determine if this is early innings or overdone.

What proves the bears right:
• More Klarna-style replacements
• Accelerating churn

Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

Bitcoin looks set to drop to 82-80k

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

📷 Photo

• This chart is “oil price divided by gold price.”
• When the red line goes down, gold is beating oil.
• When the red line goes up, oil is beating gold.

• What has happened for years
• The red line has mostly trended down for a long time.
• That means gold has been the stronger asset compared to oil.

• Where we are now
• The red line is extremely low, near a level it only hits during big stress moments.
• When something gets this stretched, it often “bounces” even if the long term trend stays down.

• What to expect
• Next 3 to 12 months: higher chance of a bounce, meaning oil could outperform gold for a while.
• Next 12 to 36 months: unless the line rises a lot and stays up, gold probably stays the long term winner vs oil.

• The simple takeaway
• Long term: gold stronger than oil.
• Short term: expect a rebound risk where oil catches up for a bit.

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

🚨 THE GREAT DIVERGENCE: BITCOIN BLEEDING WHILE STOCKS HIT ALL TIME HIGHS

Something’s off.

S&P 500 just hit a record high. Bitcoin is stuck at $91k, down 27% from October’s $126k peak.

If $BTC is the “liquidity sensor,” why is it choking while stocks rip?

WHAT’S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

The correlation between $BTC and $SPX has flipped to -0.30. They’re moving in opposite directions.

But this isn’t Bitcoin breaking. It’s Bitcoin lagging.

Stocks are expensive: CAPE ratio at 39 to 40, dot com territory. Bitcoin is cheap: valuation metrics at 2022 lows. Money is chasing equity momentum while crypto flushes leverage.

WHY PRICE FEELS HEAVY

Short Term Holder MVRV is at 0.95. Everyone who bought in the last 5 months is underwater.

Their cost basis: $113k.

Until we reclaim that level, every rally hits a wall of sellers trying to break even.

THE BULL CASE FOR H1 2026

DXY down 10% and projected to hit 94. Fed pricing in 2 more cuts. Whale accumulation in the 89th percentile. On chain metrics at multi year lows.

The macro setup is quietly stacking up. But the bottoming process takes 2 to 4 more months.

LEVELS TO WATCH

$88k is the floor: 200 day MA. Then $75k if that breaks.
$99k is confirmation: mean price reclaim.
$113k is the breakout: STH realized price.

BOTTOM LINE

The divergence isn’t a sell signal. It’s telling you Bitcoin is lagging, not dying.

If you believe the dollar weakens and the Fed cuts, this is an accumulation window. But don’t expect instant gratification.

The alpha right now is patience.

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

📷 Photo

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

Bitcoin:

• Timeframe read: On the weekly, $BTC is still in a primary uptrend off the 2022 low around 14,296, but it is in a sharp corrective phase after rejecting the prior highs near 125,665.
• Structure: The big picture is still higher highs and higher lows since 2022. The recent dump looks like a violent pullback inside that trend, not a confirmed trend reversal yet.
• The line in the sand: Price is currently 88,124, which is above the 0.382 retrace at 83,122. Holding above that level keeps the larger trend bullish.
• Support zone that matters: Your marked support area around 80,000 to 83,000 is the battlefield. The recent wick low around 85,140 bounced before losing that zone, which is a bullish “buyers still alive” tell.
• Trendlines: Price is flirting with the rising trend support. A clean weekly reclaim and hold above that rising line strengthens the bullish case. A decisive break down through it increases odds of deeper mean reversion.
• Overhead resistance: The red boxed supply around 108,000 to 110,000 is the “prove it” zone. Until $BTC reclaims that area on a weekly closing basis, upside attempts can keep getting sold.
• Bearish trigger: A weekly close below 80,000 would be a technical character change. If that happens, the next obvious magnet on your fib map is 56,839.
• Conclusion: Bullish, but only as long as 83,122 holds (with 80,000 as the last defense). Right now this is a bull market pullback, not a confirmed bear trend.

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Coingrams

May 18, 2026, 08:49 PM

Into Fed week the entire macro board is lining up for a potential volatility spike. Key things to watch:

• Dollar sitting near recent lows as traders lean into rate cut expectations

• Futures pricing roughly 85 to 90% odds of a Fed cut on December 10

• US equities showing quiet strength as markets position for easier policy

• Bitcoin holding near 91,500 as liquidity expectations improve

• Bank of America projecting a December cut plus two more in 2026

• Weak dollar plus easing odds equals a potential tailwind for risk assets

• Crypto usually reacts first and fastest when liquidity shifts

• This could be the week the market confirms the pivot or punishes the hope

Fed week is here. Position size matters. Liquidity matters. Reaction over prediction.

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