Trumpās Middle East Dead End (3): The Beneficiaries
We have established that by starting a war with Iran - following his "friend" Netanyahu's lead - Trump has maneuvered himself into a political trap. One from which thereās no good way out in any scenario. While Trump can still minimize his political losses, he cannot eliminate them entirely. Whatās more, the damage for both Trump personally and the US could escalate further and become catastrophicāfor instance, if a ground operation fails or if there are heavy casualties.
But in any zero-sum game (which geopolitics on our planet is), if someone suffers a loss, someone else inevitably gains.
And there are at least THREE such beneficiaries.
First, Iran itself. If Iran manages to hold its ground in the fight against the hegemon and merely draws the war, it will earn the right to dictate terms to its neighbors, thereby strengthening its political weight in the regionāa weight it can then convert into money and even greater influence.
After all, in this scenario, Iran would be the one deciding which ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring its own interests are securely protected. As a result, Iran could ultimately achieve what it has sought for over 40 years: freedom and the lifting of sanctions. And any future attempt to reimpose sanctions would risk a blockade of the straitāsince the agreements to keep it open would have been violated.
Second, Russia. Moscow has already seen the main US oil sanctions against it lifted, bringing in an "extra" $150ā170 million a day into its budget. The strikes on Qatari gas facilities are even betterāand not only in terms of gas sales volumes. Against this backdrop, Moscow is demonstrating to China, in particular, that it has only one reliable supplier: Russia. As a result, negotiations over the financial terms for the next major gas pipeline to China ("Power of Siberia-2") will become significantly easier for Gazprom, while becoming more challenging for the Chinese.
And thatās just the beginning. Yesterday, for instance, Russia "temporarily restricted exports of certain types of fertilizers"āthe very fertilizers that currently cannot be shipped out of the Persian Gulf, creating a shortage. Now is the perfect time to demand the lifting of all sanctions on Russia in this particular sector of global trade, which is a pressure point for the world. This would allow Russia to fully restore its position, or even strengthen it. The same applies to the aluminum market, the polymers market, and so on.
Moreover, Russia, which holds significant influence over Iran, has shown the Gulf states that itānot the USāis the guarantor of their security. And that when it comes to their own safety, it is with Russia that they need to negotiate, not Washington.
Third, China. Despite some financial costs due to rising raw material prices on global markets, China overall stands to gain a great deal from Trumpās entanglement in the Iran issueābenefits that far outweigh the drawbacks.
For one, Trump now has no bandwidth for a war with China or for dealing with Taiwan. This will significantly ease the situation for Beijing in resolving the Taiwan issue, thereby enhancing its own security. It will also serve as a lesson for Washingtonās allies in the region (Japan and South Korea). They will no longer act so aggressively and will become more compliant and pliable.
But the most important point: if the US suffers a strategic defeat in the Strait of Hormuz, it will trigger similar processes worldwide. The current "world war" is precisely about control over such strategic chokepoints. A US retreat from one of them, due to a military defeat, could become a turning point in the US-China struggleāafter which Washingtonās strategic defeat in that broader contest would be all but sealed.
And that could become the main "prize" from Trumpās Middle East dead endānot only for China, but for the world as a whole.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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